UFC on Fuel TV 10: Nogueira vs Werdum Quick Picks

Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante knocks out King Mo
to win the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship.

Due to time constraints and other factors, I am going with gut feelings over research.  Here is how I see Saturday's fights from Brazil going down:

Facebook:

• Antonio Braga Neto defeats Anthony Smith via armbar
• Karlos Vemola via RNC over Caio Magalhaes
• Mizuto Hirota wins a decision over Rodrigo Damm
• Ildemar Alcantara first round TKO of Leandro Silva
• Godofredo Castro decision win over Felipe Arantes
• Raphael Assuncao over Vaughan Lee via dominant decision

Fuel TV:

• Rony Mariano Bezerra with a TKO finish of Mike Wilkinson
• Erick Silva submits Jason High with an arm triangle choke
• Daniel Sarafian with a first round KO of Eddie Mendez
• Rafael Cavalcante makes an impressive UFC debut by destroying Thiago Silva in the standup on his way to a Knockout of the Night bonus.  If you have not seen Feijao (Cavalcante) vs King Mo, watch it.
• William Macario wins TUF Brazil with a decision victory over Leonardo Santos
• As for the main event, I have gone back and forth on this one.  I am a huge fan of both Werdum and Nogueira.  Big Nog had beaten Werdum back in the day in Saitama.  That was back when only Fedor was better than Nogueira in the heavyweight division.  Werdum's striking has jumped leaps and bounds since that original fight.  Werdum is the man who ended Fedor's unbelievable unbeaten streak.  Werdum is the man who dismantled Roy Nelson for 3 rounds. Werdum is only a win or two off a title shot.  Yet I think the boxing of Nogueira and his incredible head movement will result in a win.  I think Big Nog is deceptive because he looks as though he is incredibly aged.  What I mean by that is that he looks old, he looks like he has been to hell and back, and looks like he has nothing left in the tank.  That is not true.  He isn't young anymore but he is still a top 10 heavyweight who is not done yet.  I see Nogueira outclassing him and taking a decision to derail Werdum's title aspirations.

Picks entering this event are at 76/130 (58.5%)

Outside of the main event I did no research so we will see how much my gut knows about mixed martial arts.