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| Where Shields wants to be against Woodley and where Henderson does not want to be against Evans. |
As always, Facebook kicks things off:
- Yves Jabouin should have no trouble with Dustin Pague. He should use his experience and solid striking to earn a decision that sends Pague packing. Jabouin via decision.
- I think John Maguire is spending too much time worrying about Twitter and not enough about his fight. The good news is he is fighting on Facebook, since he is clearly such a big social media fan. I think Mitch Clarke is a sneaky guy and could actually be a decent lightweight going forward. I'll take Clarke to win this with a decision.
Off to FX we go for some more action:
- When Roland Delorme and Edwin Figueroa square off, they will both be coming off of losses to Francisco Rivera. Delorme's was change to a no contest for illegal substances, but the point is they both were knocked out by Rivera. I like Delorme in this one but Figueroa is the kind of guy that can stay away from big damage. He lost to Michael McDonald, but did not get finished by that killer. I think Delorme may get the better of the exchanges early, but I think Figueroa is good enough to not be finished. I am actually taking Figueroa to win a controversial decision that should be exciting and could go either way.
- Welterweights Sean Pierson and Kenny Robertson should be a surprise delight for fight fans. Although they aren't the sexiest names on the UFC roster, they are talented and exciting. Kenny showed some serious ground skills in Anaheim winning Submission of the Night honors. Pierson is a veteran of the game making a late run before he career comes to an end. I think the 37 year old will have his hands full with the ground game of Robertson. Normally the ground game is a "boring" aspect of MMA to casual fans, but Robertson is not a lay and pray type of fighter. I think Kenny takes home another spectacular submission finish, taking the arm of Pierson late in round 1. Robertson via armbar.
- James Krause and Sam Stout are set to go toe to toe for three rounds following Robertson and Pierson. Stout is developing a habit of leaving all his fights in the judges hands. Unlike GSP or Fitch, Stout does this not by being boring, but by having a sick chin and taking punishment. Krause is entering this fight on quite the win streak, as he makes his UFC debut. Based on record, Krause is a hell of a fighter. However, he is 0-3 in organizations worthy of note. 0-2 in the WEC (although Cerrone and Lamas are amazing fighters) and 0-1 in Bellator will not get you confidence in fighting on the big stage. Despite avenging that Bellator loss to Toby Imada in his last fight, I still think he falters on the big stage against a savvy veteran like Stout. Naturally, Stout via decision.
- The final fight on FX is one that I cannot for the life of me understand why it is on the prelims. With all of the injuries this card has undergone, they left Shields and Woodley on the prelims!!! That is a joke. The winner of this fight is guaranteed to become a top 10 welterweight. Jake Shields is just a few years removed from defending the Strikeforce Middleweight Championship against the main event legend Dan Henderson. He has losses to GSP and Ellenberger since then but is still a dominant grappler and submission artist. Woodley is a great wrestler and striker with Nate Marquardt as his only MMA blemish. With names like Saffiedine, Daley, and Mein on his hit list and a spectacular 30 second KO in his UFC debut, Woodley is a sexy prospect in the welterweight division. However, he has not been in there with a high level guy like Shields. I fully expect Woodley to have his moments, but it will ultimately be Jake dominating him against the cage and on the ground to win this fight. I would not be surprised if Jake submitted Woodley, but I am going to predict Shields via unanimous decision.
PPV time:
- Pat Barry is somewhat of a fan favorite that I never understood. I think Barry is just a subpar heavyweight that has no business being on a main card of a UFC event. Shawn Jordan is a super athletic guy that demonstrated his chin and resilience against Mike Russow in Chicago. I think Jordan can take whatever Barry is dishing and use his pure athleticism to get the win. Could be a knockout, but I think Jordan secures a guillotine choke win over Pay Barry.
- Alexis Davis is the heavy favorite entering her fight with Rosi Sexton and deservingly so. Not only has she fought in bigger organizations, Strikeforce and Invicta FC, but she has faced higher competition. I think Alexis Davis dominated her in all aspects and eventually sinks in a choke. Davis via first round Rear-naked choke.
- Apparently Ryan Jimmo vs Igor Pokrajac is a more important fight than Shields vs Woodley, since it gets the honor of making the PPV. I disagree, but that does not mean this fight shouldn't be some fun. Jimmo actually has a sneakily impressive hit list during his 17 fight unbeaten streak, including Bellator's top contender, veteran Wilson Gouveia, and Sokoudjou. He then tied the faster KO in UFC history in his debut and rocked James Te-Huna in a close losing effort in his short UFC tenure. Pokrajac, a UFC veteran was also bested by Te-Huna back at UFC 110. Igor has since then gone downhill a little bit. I think Jimmo is a guy that will make a name for himself with both his fighting and dancing. Jimmo should utilized his well rounded game to sneak away with a decision.
- I must admit at this point, these picks have been difficult to make, although some fights seem obvious. Roy Nelson vs Stipe Miocic is one that should seem like a no brainer. Yet, I feel the need to pick Miocic for some reason. Not even two months removed from knocking out Cheick Kongo, Nelson is on a 3 fight winning streak that has people calling for a title shot. His recent comments about Daniel Cormier being an "Uncle Tom" have him in some trouble, but the UFC needs him to save this card so bad that no disciplinary action has been taken yet. As for Miocic, the Croatian (actually born in Ohio) is looking to bounce back from his first career loss. He has some good standup and a huge reach advantage over Roy. Nelson's overhand right has hit people with bigger reach advantages however. The idea of Miocic knocking Nelson out is preposterous due to Nelson's unbelievable chin, but a win could be coming Miocic's way with a decision. I also for some reason am thinking Nelson is going to finally put that BJJ blackbelt to use and submit Miocic. After my constant flip flopping I finally am just going with the obvious. Roy Nelson via overhand right KO in the first round yet again.
- Finally comes the main event of the evening, featuring two guys with something to prove. The champ Jonny Bones Jones is booked to fight Alexander Gustafsson, so this is not a top contender fight. However, the winner may find himself fighting Glover Teixeira or Lyoto Machida for a title shot with a win. Henderson was the #2 light heavyweight when he lost a controversial split decision to Machida in Anaheim at UFC 157. Rashad has not lost two straight, to Bones and Little Nog. Rashad "Suga" Evans is now just looking like Rashad "Splenda" Evans, fearing his opponent at all times. He is no longer the kid who loves to fight, but now the coward who fears to exchange. He says he wants a rematch with Machida, and a win over Henderson may grant him that. But since he lost his title to Machida via vicious knockout, Rashad has not been the man we grew to love. Evans needs to not only win this fight, but prove he is ready to be a top light heavyweight again. A game of patty cake will not sit well with the UFC brass, who are on a mission to cut anyone off pay role who isn't being exciting, or a winner. On a side note, UFC 156 was the first time since UFC 73 that Evans was not fighting in the main event. He is back there yet again, so the fans expect the best out of him. Dan Henderson is not getting any younger, but he is getting better. I think he learned from the Machida fight that he needs to press the issue more and engage. When Rashad is on the outside just trying to avoid Henderson's right hand, I think Dan will be more aggressive. Henderson has the wrestling credentials to at least match Rashad's. He, like Roy Nelson, has one of the best chins in MMA history, and will need it to walk through Rashad and engage him. I think Rashad is a mess mentally and a drop from the light heavyweight division might be the only thing to get his mind right. Hopefully he can bounce back and maybe become a top middleweight, but I fear the end is near for Evans as a top 10 fighter. Henderson should win this fight and take on Glover Teixeira in a top contender fight in a perfect world. Will it be with his right hand, or Olympic wrestling is the only thing I am unsure of. 3 rounds despite the main event, I think Rashad eventually gets tagged and turtles up. Henderson TKOs "Splenda" late.
Picks entering the last event: 76/130
Event picks: 6/12
Prediction career totals: 82/142=57.8%
Bonus Predictions:
KOOTN: Roy Nelson
SOTN: Robertson
FOTN: Henderson/Evans
Nogueira/Werdum 3 stars:
- Fabricio Werdum
- Erick Silva
- Thiago Silva
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