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| Jacare and Rockhold look to keep Strikeforce in the W column with 2 big wins. |
This card, along with the newest season of TUF, will play a huge role in filling out the UFC's two weakest divisions. Those of course are the flyweight and women's bantamweight division. Although TUF is featuring 135 lb men, TUF competitors often spend the majority of their careers a weight class beneath where they compete on the show. I mention this because 2 of the 3 Facebook fights are between flyweights.
Facebook:
- The night starts between two lightweights so unheard of I couldn't even use Wikipedia to look them up. I of course am talking about Lucas Martins and Jeremy Larsen. I actually remember Larsen a little bit from The Ultimate Fighter 15, Cruz vs Faber. He seemed to be a tough customer but lacked a lot of technique. As for Lucas, he tallied up a bunch of TKO wins in Brazil before losing his UFC debut there to Edson Barboza. Edson is an absolute monster so there is no shame in that loss to Lucas. I think he rebounds and shows the world why Brazil is still the premier country in MMA. Martins via first round TKO.
- Next comes the first of two flyweight fights, and I actually know these guys. Jussier Formiga will take on Chris Cariaso in a sneakily important fight. Formiga last fought Dodson in a title eliminator that saw him knocked out cold in the 2nd round. His only other loss was to another top flyweight in Ian McCall back in early 2011. As for Cariaso, he also lost a title eliminator in his last fight. John Moraga was able to pull off the front choke submission. Unlike Formiga, Cariaso is a UFC/WEC veteran who has been fighting up a weight class most his career. I like him a lot and think he has plenty of talent. However, he is susceptible to submissions and has no knockout power. Of his 4 losses, 3 were to top level competition. Being submitted by current Interim Bantamweight Champion Renan Barao and flyweight top contender John Moraga is not a big deal. And dodging the talented striking of Michael McDonald enough to lose a narrow split decision shows he is no joke in the striking game. This is a tough one for me but I think the submission specialist survives Cariaso's good, but not dangerous striking game and wins the fight. Formiga by way of submission. (rear-naked choke)
- The following fight is also a pair of 125 lb fighters. Brazil's John Lineker finds himself up against Russia's Azamat Gashimov. The Russian is looking to rebound off his UFC debut loss to Ivan Menjivar. Since he is fighting at a smaller weight class, he hopes to be a bigger and better fighter. Lineker enters this fight with a 1-1 UFC record. I was impressed by Lineker in his loss to Gaudinot and even more impressed when he edged out Urushitani. His loss won Fight of the Night honors and he was clearly the better striker. He also gets a badass award for not tapping when Gaudinot had a deep guillotine sunk in; technical submissions are awesome. He has some talent and I think the hometown boy takes this fight of prospects. I wouldn't be surprised if he got the knockout but I am taking Lineker via decision.
The fights now move to the wonderful network of Fuel TV:
- I must say none of these fights are as intriguing as the main card, or even the Facebook fights. However, I am still itching for some good fights since that UFC on Fox 7 card blew me away and is the early favorite for "Event of the Year" honors. A pair of light heavyweights kicks of the Fuel portion of the night. Fabio Maldonado is on the very of receiving the dreaded UFC pinkslip. His heroism in the one sided beat down given to him by Glover Teixeira is the only reason Dana White is giving him this last shot at employment. Roger Hollett was the receiver of a beating of his own. However it was not as bloody, and rather boring. Also, Matt Hamill is no Glover Teixeira. The quality of the opponent who kicked his ass was way less. I do not really know or care who is the better man in this fight. All the winner will do is lose his next bout and be dropped from the UFC. Hopefully I am wrong and desperation makes these two put on a show. I see Maldonado being the stronger fighter and winning with a violent TKO.
- Iliarde Santos and Yuri Alcantara will put on a Brazil vs Brazil matchup at bantamweight. This one is a no brainer for me to pick. Santos has a loss to John Lineker, the flyweight fighting on this card. Yuri Alcantara has a knockout win over the current featherweight top contender Ricardo Lamas. He also has a win over Trinaldo, who is fighting later on this card. Hacran Dias has a win over Yuri, but I'll get into how good Dias is in a second. Yuri is the bigger, stronger, and better fighter. At 135, he still has power. Yuri Alcantara should make quick work of Santos, first round KO. On a side note, Yuri's brother is a welterweight who just submitted Wagner Prado at 205. These Alcantara brothers are legit and they will only get better at their natural weight.
- Another pair of Brazilians square off when Paulo Thiago takes on Michel Prazeres. Thiago is obviously the bigger name of the two fighters, with big wins including a knockout of Josh Koscheck. Michel, however, is undefeated entering the UFC like Paulo once was. Prazeres is getting a huge step up in competition for his UFC debut in Thiago. I see the veteran dodging the unemployment line by sneaking away with a decision over Prazeres. Thiago by unimpressive decision.
- Gleison Tibau is one of the most physically imposing lightweights, but he is far from one of the most dominant. The UFC veteran should have his hands full with John Cholish. Tibau has been in the Octagon with some serious competition, such as Nick Diaz and Jim Miller. Despite often being on the losing end of fights against top competition, he still manages to beat enough undercard guys to be a newcomer gatekeeper kind of guy. Cholish has a 1-1 UFC record, and a history of solid submission victories in his past. While he might become a better fighter down the line, I think Tibau is better now. Gleison will utilize his strong clinch game and take this one. Tibau via decision.
- Francisco Trinaldo takes the stage following the fights of the only two guys who have bested him. Only Gleison Tibau and Yuri Alcantara hold wins over Trinaldo. His opponent, Mike Rio was by far my least favorite person in the 15th season of TUF. I mentioned season 15 earlier when I was talking about Larsen. Well I enjoyed everyone on that season with the exception of Chris Tickle and Mike Rio. I think this guy is a wimp. He is a solid wrestler and I give him that, but I will never pick a man with no heart to win in the UFC. Trinaldo via TKO due to Rio quitting Tito Ortiz (vs Chuck Liddell) style.
- Last time Nik Lentz visited Brazil he played the role of spoiler successfully against Diego Nunes. Now 2-0 since dropping to featherweight, he will have his hands full withy my man, Hacran Dias. With a 21-1-1 record, Dias is coming off a win in his UFC debut against Yuri Alcantara. Lentz is the real deal and this should be an explosive and exciting fight. I am taking my boy Hacran to steal Submission of the Night honors with an arm triangle choke.
Main card on FX:
- I must say, Rafael Natal against Joao Zeferino belongs on the main card of absolutely no UFC card regardless of network. I know Chris Camozzi was promoted to the co-main event when Costa was injured, but come on. Joao is supposedly a crazy BJJ specialist. Seems weird, as he only has a submission in about half of his fights. Against real competition, Zeferino should be outmatched. Natal is a solid wrestler that has a solid submission game of his own. Not the most exciting fight, but definitely should be a technical one. Natal should outwork the UFC newcomer. Natal via decision. This is the second consecutive fight Natal lost his opponent who was replaced by a promotional newcomer.
- The lightweight division is one of the deepest divisions of the UFC. Near the top you will not see the names of Evan Dunham or Rafael dos Anjos but believe me, they are near the top in talent. Dunham has wins over Tibau and Lentz, who both fight on Fuel. His only losses were to Sherk, Guillard, and Grant. These are by no stretch bad opponents. Two of those losses even saw him take home Fight of the Night honors. In dos Anjos, you have a fighter who lost to Gleison Tibau. MMA math does not work so you cannot say Dunham has this fight wrapped up. Rafael has won 3 straight and he is a crafty BJJ blackbelt with serious submission skills. Dunham should have a slight edge in the standup but I think the Brazilian takes this fight home. Rafael dos Anjos via triangle choke.
- I mentioned Chris Camozzi was promoted to the co-main event when Costa Philippou went down with an injury. Camozzi is coming off a controversial split decision win in his last fight against Nick Ring. I would have given him the edge against Natal, but his new opponent is another animal. Friend and training partner of Anderson Silva, Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza was the former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion before Luke Rockhold took that strap from him. He is a veteran submission artist who has fought some of the best middleweights and light heavyweights over the years. He also submitted Marcelo Garcia who is widely considered to be the pound for pound best submission grappler of all time. Jacare has some striking and power to compliment his sick ground skills. Expect Jacare to be doing his signature alligator crawl when this fight is over. Souza by first round RNC.
- In the main event, Strikeforce Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold will not just look to win, but look to catch the eye of Anderson Silva with a dominant win over Vitor Belfort. Getting up there in age, Belfort is looking at a rematch with the pound for pound best fighter on the planet. With Chael Sonnen recently getting blasted by Jon Jones, some are saying he is the new P4P best, but those people are forgetting about Vitor. While Jones was in a deep armbar against Vitor, Anderson was laughing and remembering his front kick KO in the first round of their fight. Vitor knows him and Anderson both only have a few years left, so he needs to impress also to get that rematch. After coming up short against Jon Jones, Vitor knocked off top contender Michael Bisping in Brazil. Staying in his home country, Vitor and his good friend TRT and looking to blow by Rockhold to secure another title shot. Remember just a minute ago when I was tooting the horn of Jacare Souza? Yeah, Luke Rockhold beat that guy. (Also Gegard Mousasi beat Souza with an upkick; also a beastly fighter). Rockhold is still looking unbeatable and is making his debut against the Phenom. His first 8 professional fights ended in the first round, but he showed he has the talent and cardio to go the full five rounds when he took the belt from Jacare. Rockhold is a sick kickboxer training at AKA in California. This California boy has serious talent, but again, he is fighting the Phenom. The quick hands of Vitor are now complimented by a kicking game and submissions. Vitor is still getting better at age 36, which is a scary thought. The kick that caught Bisping off guard will not catch Rockhold. I see Luke being patient and handling himself in the hostile environment of Brazil. Rockhold is a man of the future, but also the man of today. I think he silences a rowdy Brazilian crowd and not only defeats, but knocks out Vitor Belfort. TRT abuser or not, Vitor Belfort's hopes at one more title fight end Saturday night. Rockhold with a championship round KO!
Picks entering UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold are at 58/105 (55%)
On a side note: SHAME ON YOU PAT HEALY!!!! Smoking weed has now cost you $130,000 and a win over Jim Miller. Hope your high was worth it. (You could have done $130,000 worth of drugs if you just waited until after the fight silly!)
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