Saturday, September 21, 2013

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson

Renan Barao is a monster at 135.
On September 21st, Jon Jones will look to pass Tito Ortiz in the record for light heavyweight title defenses in the UFC.  His opponent is a young prospect who has put together a 6 fight win streak on his way to a title shot.  After battling middleweights Belfort and Sonnen in his last 2 title defenses, Jones will have his hands full with the very tall and talented Alexander Gustafsson.  Oh yeah, and the interim bantamweight title is on the line too.  Here is how I see the night going down from the home of the Toronto Maple Leafs:


  • Nandor Guelmino made his Strikeforce debut in the final event by Strikeforce.  He was quickly outwrestled and submitted by Josh Barnett.  Also making his UFC debut is his opponent Daniel Omielanczuk.  Neither guy is very well known, but I have at least seen Nandor fight before.  However, I was not impressed whatsoever.  I like the slick submission artist, Daniel Omielanczuk to submit Nandor with an armbar.
  • Bantamweight prospects Roland Delorme and Alex Caceres will follow up the heavyweight battle.  I like Delorme a lot.  He had a very impressive win against Edwin Figueroa, who beat Caceres a while back.  I think Delorme takes a decision and Caceres gets his walking papers.  Delorme via decision.
  • Michel Prazeres lost his UFC debut to Paulo Thiago back in May after starting his career 16-0.  His opponent Jesse Ronson has a decent record of his own.  I don't think either guy is the most dangerous lightweight on the planet, but I give the edge to Prazeres in this one.  I like Prazeres via boring decision.
  • Renee Forte is a solid fighter, but his work will be cut out for him against John Makdessi in Canada.  Makdessi is a very talented striker with the Canadian judges on his side in this one.  I think Makdessi jabs Forte to death and takes home a decision win.
  • All of Mitch Gagnon's fights except one have ended in a submission.  Dustin Kimura has a few submission wins of his own.  I like this ground battle being quite exciting on the ground.  I think Kimura has a slight edge in this one and will sink in a rear-naked choke.
  • Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson promises to be one of the UFC's newest stars.  His opponent, Chris Clements lost his last fight, which later because a no contest due to that clown Riddle being busted for pot.  I hope Thompson can pull off another spectacular head kick in this one.  Thompson via head kick KO.
  • Ivan Menjivar never seems to miss a card in Canada.  He will look to bounce back from his loss to Urijah Faber against Wilson Reis.  Reis was a Bellator standout that only lost to featherweight standouts Joe Soto, Patricio "Pitbull" Freire, and bantamweight champion Eduardo Dantas.  I think he can give Menjivar fits in what should be an awesome back and forth battle.  I am taking Menjivar via split decision due to the Canadian judges.  I think Reis wins in the eyes of most fight fans, but losses the nod to Menjivar.
  • Mike Ricci is the member of Tri-Star Gym that nobody really talks about.  He trains with Rory and GSP in Canada and is a very talented lightweight.  Myles Jury is 12-0 professionally, with a loss to Al Iaquinta on TUF.  The fight was a split decision after 3 rounds, and Al was a finalist on the show.  After Iaquinta's last win over Ryan Couture, it is hard to say a split decision loss to Al is a bad performance.  Although he doesn't look physically strong, Jury hits hard.  He is a faster more crisp striker than Ricci and I think he will tag the smug look of Ricci's face.  Ricci is not a dangerous fighter, although talented.  I think Jury's killer instinct is the difference maker in this fight.  Myles Jury via violent and bloody TKO.
Pay-Per View:
  • For the second time in a row, a PPV by the UFC is kicked off by an epic matchup.  The Poirier vs Koch battle last time was wild, expect nothing less from Healy and Nurmagomedov.  This fight is near the top of that list I keep referring to, of underrated fights you cannot miss.  Healy just submitted Jim Miller in the 3rd round of his last fight, only to have his FOTN, SOTN bonuses, as well as the win taken away from him due to a positive test for smoking weed.  Nurmagomedov is still undefeated and still looking dominant as ever.  He tossed Abel Trujillo around like a rag doll in his last fight.  I believe the winner of this fight is a fight with TJ Grant away from a title shot.  Healy has constantly taken a beating in fights, only to emerge victorious late.  He is better than Martin Kampmann in making comebacks in my opinion.  I think Khabib comes out hot and takes the fight to Healy only to be submitted in the 3rd round.  This time, Pat Healy won't smoke his fight bonuses away.  I think he takes home both SOTN and FOTN yet again.  Healy via triangle/armbar combo.  On a side note, it is good to see Khabib taking things seriously by making weight.  Although, the cut is part of the reason I like Healy to win late.  Should be a classic.
  • I don't know how worthy Francis Carmont is of PPV, but I do like this match.  Costa Philippou is a beast, who is on a tear as of late.  Against Tom Lawlor and Lorenz Larkin, Carmont won controversial decisions.  The Lawlor one was of course, in Canada.  Costa hits for enough power to ensure this doesn't happen again.  Costa via TKO.
  • The only person with a worse chin that Brendan Schaub is Alistair Overeem.  Schaub will go down quick if Mitrione can hit him in the jaw.  Pat Barry has a sick chin and was put down by Mitrione in about a minute.  Schaub will probably look to use his athleticism to get Mitrione to the ground to squeak out a boring decision.  Mitrione is quick enough to land that one shot, which will be all he needs.  Glass chin going down, Mitrione by KO in less than 2 minutes.
  • Renan Barao or Dominick Cruz?  Who is the best bantamweight on the planet?  Eddie Wineland says it is him, and he has a chance to prove it on Saturday.  Will Wineland be able to take out Barao?  Doubtful.  I love Eddie and I think his wins over Pickett, Jorgensen, and even his loss to Faber were very good performances.  He has power and could knock out Barao if he lands the right shot.  Barao has 30 wins and a no contest since losing his MMA debut.  He is on one of the longest streaks in MMA history, and is as unbeatable as it gets.  Him and Aldo are training partners who both are in the pound for pound mix.  He should outclass Wineland in all areas and pick up the finish.  He will likely stun Wineland and jump aggressively on a submission.  Barao via RNC in the 4th.
  • Nobody is really giving Alexander Gustafsson a chance to dethrone Jon Jones.  I am not one of those people.  The Mauler has some serious power and a vicious uppercut.  If it lands, it will be goodnight for Jon Jones.  But landing clean shots on Jones is next to impossible.  Gustafsson has the reach advantage to hang with Jones in the standup.  But Jones is a superior wrestler with nasty elbows on the ground.  We have never really seen Alex on his back, expect for the fight that Phil Davis submitted him.  Alex has a chance, but that is all.  I hope he pulls off the upset, but I think Jones retains his belt.  Will he submit Gustafsson on the ground, or get a TKO is the only question that I have to think about. I say Jones via 4th round TKO with nasty elbows.  This will be his 6th title defense, a new light heavyweight record.
SOTN: Healy
FOTN: Healy/Nurmagomedov
KOOTN: Thompson

No comments:

Post a Comment