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| Carlos Condit puts on a show win or lose. |
Let me begin with the Facebook portion of UFC 158 starting at 7pm:
- George Roop realized the featherweight division is too stacked for him and he is trying to get a fresh start at 135lbs. He will be taking on a man with a 1-2 UFC record in Reuben Duran. Everyone knows the UFC has to make crazy amounts of cuts so there is a lot on the line in the first fight of the night. I see Roop laying it all out there and impressing in his bantamweight debut. Roop via first round KO.
- T.J. Dillashaw had his only professional mixed martial arts loss on the Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale against John Dodson. He will be taking on Japan's Issei Tamura in the second fight on Facebook. Tamura lost his only fight outside of Japan when he fought Raphael Assuncao in San Jose and I see him losing his Canadian debut on Saturday. Dillashaw via submission (RNC).
- Closing out the Facebook portion of Saturday night will be welterweights Rick Story and Quinn Mulhern. Story has dropped 3 of his last 4 but he is the only man to defeat #1 welterweight contender Johny Hendricks. Mulhern is just another Strikeforce guy looking to impress in his UFC debut. Story has only been submitted by ridiculous submission expert Demian Maia so i see Story using submission defense and squeaking out a split decision. On a side note, the only time I picked against a Strikeforce guy in my picking career was when i picked Koscheck over Lawler. Needless to say, Lawler destroyed him with a first round KO. Don't make me regret this Rick Story. Don't do it!
At 8pm Saturday night the FX portion of UFC 158 will begin with a bang:
- The Detroit Superstar, Daron Cruickshank, will be taking on John Makdessi in a lightweight battle. Makdessi will enter this fight with a mediocre 3-2 UFC record. As for his opponent, Daron Cruickshank is the reason I began following mixed martial arts. When I heard a friend of mine talking about her step brother being on The Ultimate Fighter Live, I could not help but tune in. Little did I know I would be captivated by the sport of MMA and I have Daron to thank for that. I will root for him and blindly pick him to win every fight. I have confidence in him and I am taking him to deliver another spectacular knockout. Cruickshank via KO.
- The second fight on FX shockingly will be between welterweights! (6 of 12 fights on this card are welterweights) Jim Miller's older brother Dan will be looking to build on his 1-0 welterweight record when he takes on Jordan Mein. Mein has won 8 of his last 9 with his only loss being to top welterweight Tyron Woodley via split decision. Yet again we have a UFC veteran vs a Strikeforce prospect. Even though Miller has lost 5 of his last 8, when you look at his opponents (Sonnen, Bisping, Maia, Marquardt, and Palhares) you can give him a little bit of a break. Throw in the fact he has never been finished in his mixed martial arts career and I have more faith in Miller. I think Mein is at the beginning of a potential great career, but I am taking Miller to win a decision. I think the Strikeforce train is about to come to a temporary halt.
- Despite a 5-1 UFC record and 4 fight winning streak at featherweight, Darren Elkins has yet to make noise. However it is hard to pick against him until he faces a quality opponent. Antonio Carvalho is not a quality opponent. He has 5 professional losses to guys I have never heard of and I see Elkins making it 5 in a row with a win on Saturday. Elkins via decision.
- Patrick Cote was the first man to last more than 2 rounds with Anderson Silva until his knee suddenly gave out on him. He followed up that fight with back to back losses which resulted in him being cut from the UFC. After a solid stint with other organizations he came back to the UFC only to be defeated by Cung Le. Alessio Sakara then went on to knock him out, only to have the fight ruled a DQ win for Cote. If not for this VERY controversial disqualification, Cote would be 0-5 in his last 5 UFC fights. Like other fighters who know their UFC lives are on the line, Cote decided to switch up his like by dropping down a weight class. Meanwhile his opponent Bobby Voelker only seems interested in fighting Roger Bowling. They have met 3 times since May 2010, with Bobby winning the last 2 meetings. Although I talked about the Strikeforce train being derailed at UFC 158, it does not mean they will go winless. I am taking Voelker via TKO so I don't get in trouble for disrespecting Strikeforce guys too much.
That brings us to the PPV portion of UFC 158. It is 10pm Saturday night so get to the nearest bar showing the fights and get ready for more action:
- The PPV portion begins with a pair of TUF runner ups in Mike Ricci and Colin Fletcher. Ricci lost in the finale of one of the most brutal seasons of TUF. However he trains at Tristar Gym in Montreal with GSP and Rory MacDonald. Ricci shows a lot of promise and he could be a future star in the UFC. As for Fletcher, all I really know about him is he has some ugly teeth and scary tattoos. He represents the UK against the hometown boy in Ricci. I am going with Ricci via decision but I have little info to back up my prediction. When in doubt you have to side with the home team.
- Next up is a middleweight bout between Chris Camozzi and Nick Ring. I must admit I have never seen Camozzi fight so I do not know what he is capable of. However, I am a big fan of what I have seen out of Nick Ring. His only career loss is to top middleweight Tim Boetsch. His last win was over Court McGee, and after seeing Court trounce Josh Neer I have to say that Ring is for real. I do not know what to expect as far as excitement for this fight is concerned, but I do think Ring is a lock to win this fight. Ring via decision.
- Had Jake Ellenberger finished Kampmann, he may have been headlining this event as the top contender to GSP. Instead, he got knocked out and sent to the back of the line. Former top UFC middleweight Nate Marquardt will be looking to avenge his loss to Tarec Saffadine when he makes his return to the octagon on Saturday. These are two finishers looking to jump back into the top of the welterweight mix. I have flip flopped a bunch of times on this one but I think I am going with Marquardt via split decision. Yes I know I just called them both finishers. However, Ellenberger is known for gassing early in fights. Marquardt has not been finished by anyone since Anderson Silva in 2007. I see Nate weathering the early storm in the first round only to come back and win the next two.
- Speaking of going back on forth on who I think will win a fight: Carlos Condit against Johny Hendricks has me more baffled than any fight of recent memory. I love both of these guys. Condit is such an accomplished mixed martial artists and he pushed GSP to the brink of defeat in a tremendous fight last time he was in the octagon. He has a devastating striking game with some crazy kicks. Hendricks is the wrestler who used Chuck Liddell style wrestling to keep the fight standing and knock people's heads off. Hendricks has fought and defeated the top of the division in Fitch, Koscheck, and Kampmann. I have labeled him as the man born to dethrone GSP before and I am sticking with it. Love you Carlos, but you do not have the wrestling to handle Hendricks. I am more worried about Condit winning with an armbar than I am worried about his striking game (which again is top of the division striking). This is simply because I do not know where Johny's jiu jitsu is at right now. I think Johny will take Carlos down and do damage before ultimately catching him with his striking. Hendricks has a nuclear bomb for a left hand and yes, I am predicting it will strike again. 3rd round KO win for Johny Hendricks. I know MMA math is not perfect but Condit lost to Kampmann, who was bested by Hendricks in under 2 minutes. This gives me a tad bit more reenforcement that my pick isn't too dumb.
- Normally I like to build up a main event before I jump into my prediction. I like to show why this challenger for the title is unique and intriguing. Nick Diaz does not pose any new challenges GSP has not already dealt with. This is a joke of a fight since Diaz is coming off of a banned substance suspension and a loss to the man GSP just beat. Hendricks should be fighting GSP on Saturday night, not that I don't love the co-main event of UFC 158. That said, GSP will trounce Nick Diaz and defend his title with relative ease. Here is where I throw you the curveball: Georges St. Pierre will knock Nick Diaz out. The man known for defensive fights and winning decisions with wrestling will beat Diaz at his own game and out box the tremendous striker. GSP via 4th round KO that send the Bell Centre into an explosion!
Predictions entering UFC 158: 35/69: 50.07%
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