Bellator CVI: Chandler vs Alvarez

Chandler celebrates becoming Bellator's lightweight champ
after defeating a dejected Alvarez at Bellator LVIII (58).

It is not often I give Bellator or World Series of Fighting more than just a brief shout out on this page, but sometimes they deserve their due.  Bellator CVI (106 for those of you who don't understant Roman numerals) is by far the biggest event Bellator MMA will put on.  Originally, this was scheduled to be Bellator's Pay-per view debut.  However, the main event fight was cancelled because Tito Ortiz is injured.  Now Spike TV will be showing the extended main card for free which is a treat to fight fans.  I have quite a bit to say about the whole ordeal as well as my predictions on how the night will go:

I already expressed my distaste of the Rampage vs Ortiz main event on PPV a while back.  I thought Bellator was getting away from what made them successful by using washed up UFC fighters and using the PPV format.  Additionally Bellator could not have expected anything other than Tito Ortiz pulling out of the fight with an injury.  However, this injury could be a blessing in disguise.  Bellator took the bashing of its main event and realized they needed to put on one hell of a main card to help entice PPV purchases.  They again went away from what they do best by skipping the tournament format and put Eddie Alvarez against Michael Chandler for the lightweight title.  However, nobody is complaining about that.  The rematch of one of the better fights I've ever seen should be amazing and there is little doubt that Alvarez is the best fighter available for Chandler to face.  Also, Pat Curran is on the card in a rematch of his own.  Curran will face Straus, the winner of the Bellator Season 6 Featherweight Tournament.  The third title fight on the card will feature yet another rematch as King Mo and Emmanuel Newton will fight for the interim light heavyweight title.  Newton shocked the world with a spinning backfist KO of King Mo in the first fight, but Mo still enters this fight a heavy favorite.  A 3 title fight card on free TV can only be good for Bellator and its fans.

Bellator was quite sneaky when it pulled UFC veterans Etim, Kongo, and Parisyan from this stacked card.  They cited multiple injuries in doing so, but it is very debatable that these injuries ever happened since they were all announced AFTER the Ortiz injury.  Also, I do not trust the Bellator CEO, Bjorn Rebney.  Everything abut Rebney just points to him being a scumbag.  Eddie Alvarez being retained by the organization is a controversial topic regarding Rebney.  But talking about him being sketchy is a topic for another day.  Here are my picks for Bellator 106:

• Mike Richman submits Akop Stepanyan via armbar
• Bellator debuted its version of The Ultimate Fighter called Fight Master earlier this year.  The first Fight Master season finale will be on this card as well.  Joe Riggs of Team Jackson will take on Mike Bronzoulis of Team Couture.  Riggs is actually a veteran of the game, who once fought Hughes for the welterweight title (if Riggs would have made weight) at UFC 56.  He has won 9 in a row including his time on the show and I think he outclasses Bronzoulis.  Riggs via decision.
• Many people think King Mo is more hype than talent.  I disagree.  Anyone who holds a win over Gegard Mousasi is an excellent fighter.  However, with his losses to Feijao and Newton he has shown a questionable ability to take a punch.  If Newton lands again, Mo will go down.  However, I see Mo making this more of a wrestling match than a striking exchange.  Therefore I see King Mo taking Newton down and ground and pounding his way to the interim title.  Newton is very talented and debatably disrespected by being such an underdog against someone he beat earlier this year.  But I side with the odds and agree that King Mo will win the rematch with a late round TKO.
• I thought Shahbulat Shamhalaev would be a very tough match for Pat Curran to win.  Curran submitted him in the first round like it was no big deal.  He also beat Joe Warren and Patricio Pitbull in he previous title fights which are also very impressive wins.  He holds a KO win over his next opponent Daniel Straus as well.  Straus is on a tear and is a completely different fighter than he was in the first fight, but Curran is just too good.  I think Curran will use his brilliant counter-striking to get the job done and finish Straus within 3 rounds.  Curran via KO.
• Michael Chandler, like Curran, made very quick work of a difficult opponent in his last fight.  He knocked out David Rickels in under a minute to retain his belt and move to 12-0 for his MMA career.  Eddie Alvarez enters as the former champion who lost his belt in a thriller to Chandler back in 2011.  Since losing the belt he redeemed his lost to Shinya Aoki and beat up on Patricio Pitbull's brother Patricky.  He has not fought in over a year due to contract limbo with Bellator and the UFC.  He finally is back in Bellator (most likely unhappily) and ready to fight again.  As I said before, he redeemed himself in the rematch with Aoki and will look to do the same with Chandler.  I love both these guys for their talent as well as exciting styles of fighting.  Chandler will win the rematch in my opinion because he is too fast.  He may be the fastest lightweight on the planet.  I think his standup game is better than it was in the first fight where he rocked Alvarez repeatedly in the first round.  These tough warriors will slug it out but I believe it will be Chandler, yet again, getting his hand raised. Chandler via KO.

This historic Bellator event should be spectacular and I would remember to tune into Spike TV on Saturday night if I were you.  Don't forget the following friday sees Kongo and Warren fighting as well.  Bellator is still a legit competitor with the best in MMA despite the dropout of their first PPV event.  Thanks to Tito, the fans win with an amazing card now on free TV.

Trading: The Only Thing Buffalo Can Win

Moulson scored twice in his Sabres debut.

The Buffalo Sabres are currently the laughing stock of the NHL.  They have struggled thus far having played the most games of any team in the league, and having the fewest points.  Last year they made a good trade by moving Pominville at the trade deadline for more than ample compensation.  I said in my season preview that both Vanek and Miller should be moved before the end of the 2013/14 season.  1 Down, 1 to go.

When I saw that the New York Islanders made a trade to acquire Thomas Vanek from Buffalo I was pleased to see the Islanders having a "win now" approach.  With their young talent and rising prominence in the east conference, it was time to see the Islanders begin to contend for a Cup again.  When I saw what the Islanders gave up to get Vanek, I instantly grew angry and knew it was time for a Garth Snow rant.  Here I go:

First off, let me just say that the only reason Evgeni Nabokov is on the Islanders is because Snow is bitter about losing in the 1997 Stanley Cup Finals to the Detroit Red Wings and so he scooped Nabby off waivers just prevent Detroit from succeeding.  That may have worked in the long-run, but it was still kind of a dick move Snow.

Moving on to this trade:  The reason I initially liked this trade was because the Islanders were looking to win now.  They signed veterans like Pierre-Marc Bouchard and grinder Cal Clutterbuck in the offseason.  Those are clearly moves meant to make playoff impacts.  Those are not pieces that get you to the playoffs, they help you win when you get there.  Again, they have young talent all over their roster, as well as in the AHL, CHL, and other leagues in Europe.  Then they have a solid core group of guys in Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Nielsen, and Moulson.... Oh wait!  Moulson is now a Buffalo Sabre because of the Vanek trade.  Moulson is a 3 time 30 goal scorer and was just 3 points shy of a point per game season last year.  Oh, and his numbers have improved ever so slightly each year.  Moulson clearly is a guy you can build a team around, especially at age 29.

I would not trade Moulson for Vanek straight up.  Buffalo got Moulson and a 1st and 2nd round pick in this trade.

Vanek is an unrestricted free agent at the end of this year.

I did not point the above points in paragraphs because I want them to pop.  Those are two very sound reasons why this trade should never have happened.  By the way, Moulson's point production is very similar to Vaneks, although it is not quite as high.  However, Moulson has a significantly better defensive game.  He plays the game with heart and is good on special teams as well.  Vanek is a powerplay specialist, but if he is ever on a penalty killing unit, expect to see the puck behind Nabokov.

I had great expectations for the Islanders going forward.  I predicted that they will win a Cup in the next 5 years, but I am starting to rethink that based on the direction Garth Snow is taking this team.  I give Buffalo credit for getting a great return on Vanek, but I blame Snow for a huge mistake as well.  Who knows, I could be wrong and Vanek could be the perfect fit?  I say probably not, however.  Also, I would not be surprised if Buffalo goes right back to the market and moves Moulson before the deadline for more picks/prospects.  Buffalo may not win many games this year, but at least they won this trade.

On a positive note for Islanders fans (who make awesome videos), at least Snow is better than Milbury!

Fight Night: Munoz vs Machida Recap

Machida added another KO to his highlight reel.

Saturday held a UFC event in the UK and then WSOF took the stage from Miami later that night.  Really quick I just want to point out that Steve Carl submitted Josh Burkman in a very entertaining match that saw him become the very first WSOF champion.  Also in the welterweight division Jon Fitch barely won against Marcelo Alfaya.  Justin Gaethje finished Dan Lauzon and should face Nick Newell for the vacant lightweight title.  And Marlon Moraes won impressively again and is by far the best bantamweight on the WSOF roster and will likely be crowned champion soon.  Back to the UFC now for a recap:

• Brad Scott won with a first round front choke against Michael Kuiper
• Jimy Hettes submitted Rob Whiteford in the 2nd with a triangle choke
• Cole Miller defeated Andy Ogle via submission, called out judges, called out fighters from the UK, then scurried to the locker room as the boos rained down
• Jessica Andrade put down a 3 round whipping on Rosi Sexton
• Luke Barnatt rocked Andrew Craig a few times before securing an armbar finish in a FOTN performance
• Al Iaquinta outclassed the very tough and durable Piotr Hallmann to win a decision
• John Lineker won via 1st round KO yet again beating Phil Harris.  He likely will face John Dodson in a top contender fight or move up to bantamweight as he keeps missing weight.
• Nicholas Musoke picked up Submission of the Night against Alessio Sakara in a very entertaining fight
• Norman Parke landed his left hand at will yet again defeating Jon Tuck via decision
• Ryan Jimmo's leg gave out on him as he lost the fight via injury TKO.  Jimi Manuwa picks up the win via injury for the second fight in a row.  He heavily damaged Jimmo's leg with knees and kicks so give him full credit for this win although it seemed like a fluke the way Jimmo went down
• Melvin Guillard was getting lose and starting to beat up Ross Pearson before an illegal knee ended the fight with a no contest.  Pearson was playing possum with his hand on the ground as Guillard kneed him in the head a few times.  The fight is rescheduled for London in March.
• Lyoto Machida made quick work of Mark Munoz by defeating him with a 1st round head kick KO.  Munoz was aware of Machida's power and counter striking but I think he was a bit too cautious.  Machida is instantly in the mix at middleweight now with this win.  Munoz still hangs out in the top 10 but has a few wins to get before re-entering the title picture.

UFC Awards:

FOTN: Barnatt/Craig

SOTN: Musoke

KOOTN: Machida

Brutal Sports Awards:

Beatdown of the Night: Andrade

Sketchiest Decision of the Night: The "no contest" called on Pearson/Guillard

Upset of the Night: Barnatt

Three Stars:

1. Machida
2. Barnatt
3. Scott

Prediction totals:

Entering events: 152/262-58%

Event total: 8/11-72.7%

Pick Totals:  160/273-58.6%

Fight Night Preview: Munoz vs Machida

An eye injury forced Bisping out of the main event in the UK.

To say I am excited for this card is an understatement.  It should be a great night of battles.  To say I am upset that it starts at noon and will be half on Facebook and half on FS2, a channel I do not get is upsetting.  From the UK the UFC put together a solid lineup of fights, here are my predictions:

Online prelims:

• Michael Kuiper defeats Brad Scott via TKO
• Jimy Hettes defeats Robert Whiteford via submission (RNC)
• Cole Miller defeats Andy Ogle via submission (RNC)
• Jessica Andrade defeats Rosi Sexton with her signature guillotine choke
• Andrew Craig defeats Luke Barnatt via decision
• Al Iaquinta defeats Piotr Hallmann with a 1st round KO

FS2:

• John Lineker defeats Phil Harris via KO despite missing weight for the 3rd time.  Up to bantamweight you go Lineker.
• Alessio Sakara defeats Nicholas Musoke via decision.
• Norman Parke and Jon Tuck win Fight of the Night.  Parke steals a split decision thanks to the home crowd.
• Jimi Manuwa defeats Ryan Jimmo with a KO.  This is quietly a VERY important fight between potential contenders at 205.
• Melvin Guillard gets a KO in Ross Pearson's 3rd fight since his return to lightweight.  Pearson is a tough dude but he gets hit too much and Guillard is a finisher.  Unless your ground game is sick, I don't like your chances against Guillard.
• Lyoto Machida is big enough to handle Munoz's wrestling and has enough wits about him to avoid Munoz's power.  Although he has savage ground and pound, Munoz will not be able to get Machida to the ground, nor will he have much success in the striking game.  I think he is tough enough to take a few shots and keep fighting, but it should be a methodical display of counter-striking by Lyoto Machida on route to a KO.

UFC 166 Recap

Diego and Gilbert slugged it out like maniacs.

To say Dana White was pleased with how the entire UFC 166 card from Houston went would be an understatement.  This was one of those really stacked cards on paper that actually delivered.  There were 4 finishes on Facebook, good FS1 battles, and the Pay-Per View had a pair of knockouts followed by an absolute war.  Oh and by the way, a heavyweight title trilogy was concluded as well.  Here is just my brief review of who won and what I think should be next for the guys at UFC 166.

Facebook:

• Kyoji Horiguchi 2nd round finish of Dustin Pague.
• Andre Fili missed weight but finished Jeremy Larsen in the 2nd round via TKO anyway.
• Tony Ferguson d'arce choke in the 1st over Mike Rio
• Adlan Amagov knocked slick submission artist TJ Waldburger out in the 1st round.

FS1:

• KJ Noons edges out George Sotiropoulos in a hard fought striking battle.
• Jessica Eye pulls off the upset with a split decision over Sarah Kaufman.  I scored the fight 30-27 for Kaufman but all 3 rounds were very very closely contended and tough to score.
• Hector Lombard with a HUGE 1st round KO of Nate Marquardt.  Hector looks to fight on the December 7th card in Australia.  I know it is short notice but I believe Stephen Thompson, Martin Kampmann, Jake Ellenberger, Jake Shields, or Demian Maia are available to take him on.  One of those would be interesting.  Nate Marquardt might be better off back at 185, but if welterweights are knocking him out that easily then maybe he should look to retire instead.
• Tim Boetsch won a split decision over CB Dollaway.  2 judges scored all 3 rounds for Tim while the other scored all 3 rounds for Dollaway.  Dollaway was deducted a point for eye pokes.

PPV:

• John Dodson was entertaining, quick, and powerful like always when he picked up KO of the Night in the first round against Darrell Montague.  Montague held tough in his UFC debut but looked flat footed at times.  Both guys have bright futures but Dodson definitely put himself in a good spot to potentially get the winner of Benavidez vs DJ 2.
• Gabriel Gonzaga also made a splash with a first round KO of his own.  He made quick work of the rapidly rising Shawn Jordan.
• Gilbert Melendez and Diego Sanchez put on an absolute war.  Melendez used his superior takedown defense and counter striking to pick Sanchez apart but in the 3rd round that changed.  They were in wild exchanges swinging away when Sanchez caught Melendez with an uppercut that appeared to knock him out cold, but Gilbert shot in on a single and the show went on.  They swung it out to the finish and Melendez ultimately won the decision.  Joe Rogan called it the best fight he has ever seen, but I would say that is an overstatement.  Nevertheless, it is right up there with Jones/Gustafsson, Silva/Stann, and Grice/Bermudez for Fight of the Year.  Diego proved he still belongs in the lightweight division.  He should fight another exciting guy like Joe Lauzon or Melvin Guillard next.  As for Melendez, he should be looking at fighting TJ Grant, Khabib Nurmagomedov, or Anthony Pettis next.  If Pettis beats Thomson I have no problem with him getting a title shot now.  If Thomson wins, I think he should fight Khabib and let Grant get his title shot.
• Daniel Cormier outclassed Roy Nelson for 3 rounds to win a decision.  At 205, DC should fight Rashad Evans or Phil Davis next.  Nelson will continue to get exciting fights but not get a title shot.  Maybe the loser of Bigfoot/Hunt should fight Nelson next.
• The main event was a grinding war that had JDS seeing stars for 5 rounds yet again.  Right off the get go, Junior rocked Cain.  About 5 seconds into the fight Cain was already looking hurt.  But Cain fought through the adversity and pushed JDS against the cage.  It was a weird finish in the 5th, but there is no doubt Cain is the best heavyweight in UFC history following this win.  He will likely face Werdum, and then the Barnett/Browne winner after that.  Look for Cain to be the champion for a long time, and don't be surprised if he fights JDS a 4th or 5th time.  As for Junior, I still want to see him fight Overeem.  If not the Reem, I want JDS to fight more tough wrestlers so he can learn to make his game more well rounded.

UFC awards:

FOTN: Melendez/Sanchez

SOTN: Ferguson

KOOTN: Dodson

Brutal Sports Awards:

Beatdown of the Night: Velasquez

Sketchiest Decision of the Night: Eye/Kaufman

Upset of the Night: Eye

Three Stars:

1. Gilbert Melendez/Diego Sanchez
2. Hector Lombard
3. John Dodson

Picks totals entering UFC Fight Night: 141/240

Picks at UFC Fight Night: 4/10 (That card pissed me off)

Picks at UFC 166: 7/12

Pick totals: 152/262=58%

Just for the record, 58% is not bad for picking winners in the fight game.  You try it on every card from now on and see that you are at about 50%.  Fights are not made to be won by 1 person, they are made to leave people wondering who the hell is going to win.  I want to be in the 60-65% range but considering how unpredictable this game is I am ok with my 58%.  Plus, I am not afraid to pick an underdog when doing picks.  If you feel daring enough, challenge me next event!

UFC 166: Velasquez VS JDS 3

Last time Boetsch and JDS were on the
same card it didn't end well for them.

The heavyweight division has been somewhat of a disappointment for me so far in my MMA watching days. I feel like it has too much to do with lucky shots than it has to do with technique and skill.  Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos have changed that in my opinion.  Never before have I seen two guys so far ahead of everybody else in their division.  They are absolutely better than every other heavyweight on the planet.  They both have wins over each other.  I have said it before and I'll say it again, I do not see them ever losing unless fighting each other.  Junior had the 1st round KO win while Cain had the 5 round beat down in his win.  Who will emerge victorious in the most important fight in the history of the heavyweight division?  I have gone back and forth a million times.  Oh and by the way, literally every fight on this card is insanely awesome.  Between this event, 167, 168, and the UFC on Fox 9 cards coming up, the UFC has one of the most amazing lineup of events coming up.  Rather than going on a date, I plan on spending my "Sweetest Day" watching people bash each other's brains in.  My predictions:

Facebook:

• Pague vs Horiguchi: Dustin Pague has an unimpressive 1-4 record in the UFC.  I think the newcomer Kyoji Horiguchi gets the W in his debut.  Horiguchi via decision.
• Fili vs Larsen: What Jeremy Larson lacks in talent he makes up for in heart, but he should have his hands full with Andre Fili, also a UFC newcomer.  I don't really like Larsen's chances in this one but I also don't like when people miss weight.  I think Larsen is too tough to put away for Fili, who will gas out after a tough weight cut.  Larsen via 3rd round TKO.
• Rio vs Ferguson:  Ferguson won The Ultimate Fighter and I don't particularly care for Rio.  I think Rio is lacking a lot of heart and will give up when the going gets tough.  Ferguson via TKO.
• Amagov vs Waldburger: TJ Waldburger has always been a favorite of mine.  Like Joe Lauzon, he is an exciting and aggressive submission guy. Amagov has a 2 fight win streak from his days in Strikeforce with his only recent loss being to Robbie Lawler.  This is a toss up for me but I think Waldburger catches an arm.  Waldburger via armbar.

FS1:

• Sotiropoulos vs Noons:  Back when he was 7-0 in the UFC, Sotiropoulos was not far from getting a lightweight title shot.  Since then, he has lost 3 fights in a row to some tough guys.  Noons also is on a 3-fight skid so naturally both guys know their jobs are on the line.  Even though the quality of his last 6 fights is really high, a 1-5 record just isn't cutting it for Noons.  I also think this is a nightmare of a matchup for Noons as well.  Noons is a boxer and he wins fights (at least he used to) doing just that.  Sotiropoulos is a guy that puts you on your back and beats you up for 15 unless you tap first.  I see The Aussie getting back in the W column on Saturday.  Sotiropoulos via decision.
• Eye vs Kaufman:  Jessica "Evil" Eye and Sarah Kaufman marks the only women's division fight on the card, but boy is it a good one.  I was very excited for Kaufman to fight McMann in her UFC debut but that fell apart.  Now she sees arguably the best flyweight in the world across from her.  That is going to be one of many problems for Eye.  She is a natural flyweight being forced to fight up a weight class because it is the only division the UFC offers.  Also, Sarah Kaufman is one of the better strikers in women's MMA.  Kaufman holds notable wins over Davis (twice), Tate, Baszler, Modafferi, Carmouche, and Smith.  Adding Eye to that list will be a big one for her.  Kaufman is a former Strikeforce 145 champ fighting a top 125er.  This all just points to Kaufman winning, but don't expect Eye to go down without a fight.  This is a fight that could steal the show on a stacked card.  Kaufman via decision.
• Lombard vs Marquardt:  Yes, Nate Marquardt and Hector Lombard are squaring off on a preliminary fight on FS1.  Ridiculous.  This fight on prelims just shows how stacked this card really is. I think Marquardt is being ridiculously under rated as well.  He was knocked out by Jake Ellenberger in his last fight.  Big deal!  A lot of people don't see round 2 with Jake.  And Tarec Saffiedine is someone who could be a top guy if he ever makes his UFC debut.  Despite the 2 fight skid, Marquardt is still the former Strikeforce welterweight champ and the former middleweight top contender in the UFC.  Lombard is the former Bellator middleweight champ but has disappointed so far in the UFC.  Both men have a 1st round finish of Palhares and a decision loss to Okami.  At 170, which Lombard made very easily, Lombard should be a stud.  This has all the makings of a great fight and I am taking Nate the Great to win.  He has too many weapons, Lombard has 1.  Lombard could pull off a Ellenberger and KO Nate but I just see Nate being the superior fighter.  Marquardt via decision.
• Boetsch vs Dollaway:  Yes, Tim the Barbarian is also on prelims.  Stacked card.  If the original match of Boetsch and Rockhold stayed intact I would be begging for the fight to be on the PPV.  But against CB Dollaway, I'll allow it to be on prelims.  Dollaway is a fun fighter who is taking a big step up in competition in Boetsch.  Tim, unfortunately, is on a major skid.  Maybe he is just not as good as I once thought him to be.  Yushin Okami dominated him for 2 round before Tim beat him in the 3rd.  Since then he has a controversial split decision win over Lombard and now 2 straight losses.  Oh and Costa lost to Carmont in a boring fight which means Boetsch lost to a guy who also was not as good as we thought he was.  Enough about me rambling though, Boetsch should annihilate CB if he brings his A game.  Boetsch via barbarian TKO.

PPV:

• Dodson vs Montague:  Even though many people have no idea who Darrell Montague is, he is widely considered to be a top 5 flyweight.  Meanwhile Dodson is coming off a very close loss to the current flyweight champion.  He had 2 knockdowns in the second round of that title fight but was unable to finish the talented champ.  I expect this to be an absolute war of a striking match with Dodson's speed and power giving him a slight edge.  I think he learned a lot from his loss to DJ and will be more well rounded as well.  Also, props to Dodson for taking a picture with the Octagon girls during his weigh in.  He certainly is quite the character but he is a stud of a fighter too.  Dodson via KO.
• Jordan vs Gonzaga: Shawn Jordan is one of the quickest rising stars in the heavyweight division.  Gonzaga is a resurgent star looking to build off of a 17 second KO in his last fight.  I think Jordan has the chin to handle the best of Gonzaga's striking and Gonzaga has a questionable chin in my opinion.  However, Gonzaga does have that nasty submission game that Jordan has never really seen in his UFC career.  This is a toss up for me but I am leaning Jordan to get a KO win that really helps him climb the ladder into heavyweight title contention.  Jordan via KO that should be on prelims instead of Marquardt vs Lombard!
• Melendez vs Sanchez:  Gilbert Melendez enters his fight with Diego Sanchez as the biggest favorite on the card and rightfully so.  He is still the #1 lightweight on the planet in my eyes.  I think he beat Benson Henderson and I also think he would destroy Anthony Pettis if/when they fight for the title.  Right now, he is a fight or two away from being the #1 contender.  Diego Sanchez used to be a top tier lightweight, but has fallen off considerably since then.  He is tough enough not to get finished by Gil, but boy oh boy is he in for a beating.  Should be FOTN worthy and a treat for the fans.   But also, a showcase for Gilbert to demonstrate his talents.  Gilbert 30-27 on all scorecards.
• Cormier vs Nelson: Daniel Cormier is the best wrestler in the UFC right now.  He is currently in a transition from heavyweight to light heavyweight.  Nelson seems to be in a transition himself, looking lighter than ever at the weigh ins.  People forget he is a submission guru on the ground because he prefers to knock people out.  I am actually not buying into the hype on this fight.  I think DC is boring and has no punching power.  He will likely impose his cage control strategy that he used on Mir to grind out a decision.  With his lack of power and Nelson's stupid chin, there is no way he gets a finish.  Nelson COULD land that one shot to end it, but I am not expecting anything.  DC via boring decision that lets us down in the co-main event yet again.
• Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos: What more is there to say about the main event?  It is the biggest fight in heavyweight history.  Junior has the chin to handle the heaviest punches of Velasquez, Hunt, and other hard hitting heavyweights.  Cain has made literally 1 mistake his entire MMA career when JDS caught him with an overhand right.  Cain is seriously perfect with exception to that one punch.  Will Cain get the job done in the 3rd fight?  I have no clue.  I think he is a superior fighter to JDS but those X factors make me wonder.  Can Cain finish him?  Is Cain's chin questionable?  Is JDS's chin indestructible?  Is Junior more confident?  I really don't know.  But as far as making a pick I guess I have to go with the better fighter.  And that is without a doubt Cain Velasquez.  There are reasons why Cain might lose, but I feel relatively confident Junior doesn't land a finishing blow on Cain in this fight.  Cain via 5 round beat down again.

Bonus Predictions:

FOTN: Marquardt/Lombard (maybe Eye/Kaufman)

SOTN: Waldburger

KOOTN: Dodson

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UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Maia

Demian Maia is undefeated at welterweight since
losing to Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman.

For the casual MMA fan, take Wednesday night off.  For the passionate UFC fans, you are in for an interesting night of fights.  I say this because there are not a ton of exciting brawls on the Shields vs Maia card, but there are very intriguing matches.  Here is how I see the night going down from Brazil.

FS1 prelims:

• Allan Patrick and Garett Whiteley are both coming into their UFC debuts with undefeated records.  I noticed that Patrick is not much of a finisher and Whiteley is.  I will side with the more dangerous man and take Whiteley by TKO.
• Chris Cariaso and Iliarde Santos both enter their fight with 2 consecutive losses.  Losing to Iuri Alcantara and Ian McCall is nothing to be ashamed of for Santos.  Cariaso's losses to Formiga and Moraga aren't too bad of losses either.  These flyweights have come up short against tough competition, but head to head I think this is an obvious choice.  Cariaso can use his varied attack to keep Santos off balance.  Santos throws heavy haymakers for a flyweight but I think Cariaso can evade those bombs.  Cariaso via decision.
• Dave Mitchell had a decent start to 2013 with a win in Chicago but could not follow it up when he lost to Mike Pierce in July.  Yan Cabral is making his UFC after being forced to leave TUF Brazil with an injury.  He enters this fight undefeated but is facing a major step up in competition.  Nobody notable is on Cabral's hit list other than his last opponent, "The Gracie Hunter" Kazushi Sakuraba.  Although legendary, Sakuraba is washed up.  I think Mitchell is getting underrated in this fight and he could beat the Brazilian in his hometown.  Mitchell via TKO.
• Making his UFC debut against Ildemar Alcantara is Igor Araujo.  I know little about Igor, but I know that Alcantara is a killer with a submission win at light heavyweight.  At 170, Alcantara should be a force to be reckoned with.  Alcantara via a cool submission. (kneebar or armbar)

Same channel main card:

• TJ Dillashaw fights for Team Alpha Male and Duane "Bang" Ludwig.  These fighters are now 13-0 in the UFC since he has been their head coach.  Dillashaw has a really tough opponent in front of him, especially in Brazil.  Raphael Assuncao is now 4-0 since making the drop to bantamweight.  Dillashaw is on a 4 fight win streak since losing to Dodson on the TUF 14 Finale.  If he wins against Assuncao he will likely try to jump on to that stacked UFC on Fox 9 card in California.  But that is a big if.  Assuncao is world class talent and will have the home crowd behind him.  I like Assuncao but I cannot go against a tough Dillashaw and a 13-0 coach.  Dillashaw via nasty KO.
• The aforementioned Mike Pierce cannot be mentioned without the words "underrated" and "disrespected."  He has amassed a win streak currently at 4.  But in his last 10, he is 8-2 with split decision losses to top rated welterweights Josh Koscheck and Johny Hendricks.  He is getting his first really tough opponent since the Koscheck fight (that I thought he won) in Rousimar Palhares.  I used to be a huge Palhares fan, knowing how dangerous his heel hook from hell is.  But recently, I noticed that he is awful and keeping his wits about him when he is being punched, like in the Belcher and Lombard losses he is coming off of.  Like I said, I am a big Palhares fan, but I think he gets rattled when Pierce is beating his face in.  Pierce has never been finished before, so I think that trend continues.  Pierce via TKO.
• Fabio Maldonado and Joey Beltran have some of the biggest hearts and toughness in the UFC.  They also are lacking in top level talent.  That is the recipe for a slugfest that should get the fans all riled up.  I think Beltran has a boxing disadvantage which will lead to a loss.  But these tough dudes will stay standing no matter how many hard shots are landed.  FOTN decision win for Maldonado.
• Thiago Silva is on a rise back from obscurity following his 1st round KO of Feijao.  I think Hamill's wrestling could cause Thiago fits in this fight.  If Silva can stuff the takedown, this fight is no contest.  I am leaning Silva, but I would not be surprised if Hamill bores us to death and takes a wrestling win home.  Silva catches him in my opinion and secures a TKO finish in the 3rd.
• From one Silva to the next, Erick Silva will look to prove why he is a highly hyped prospect in the UFC.  His loss to Jon Fitch impressed me as much as his sick win over Jason High.  However, I currently have Dong-Hyun Kim ranked very high in the welterweight division at #7.  While most "experts" would call me an idiot, I say nay.  He has 1 legitimate loss to Carlos Condit when Carlos was on a tear and became the welterweight interim king.  He also lost to Demian Maia, but that was a freak injury that forced him to stop the fight.  He has a pretty good list of wins over Matt Brown, TJ Grant, Nate Diaz, Paulo Thiago, and others.  His wrestling really neutralizes his opponent's strategy.  I like Silva's ground game and think he is still very capable of winning this fight.  But I am taking Kim without much worry to win this fight via decision.
• Onto the main event.  5 rounds scheduled for Maia and Shields to never be more than a foot away from one another.  These two have 1 thing on their mind whenever they fight, grappling.  They both like to be glued to their opponent to throw clinch strikes and take the fight to the ground.  From there, they look to pass guard and look for submission openings.  Neither man has ever been submitted.  Neither man has a great striking game.  I think Shields had more success at middleweight than welterweight, yet Maia is the opposite.  If this fight is at middleweight, I take Shields.  But at welterweight, I go with Maia.  I think Shields depletes himself too much at 170.  I go with Maia to win this with a decision.  No submissions here, they both defend too well.  Shields is known for baiting his opponents by giving them his neck or an arm so they waste energy going for the submission, but he is smart enough not to do that here.  Still, again, Maia to win a 5 round chess match.

UFC award predicitons:

SOTN:  Alcantara

KOOTN: Dillashaw

FOTN:  Maldonado/Beltran