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| Demian Maia is undefeated at welterweight since losing to Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman. |
FS1 prelims:
- Allan Patrick and Garett Whiteley are both coming into their UFC debuts with undefeated records. I noticed that Patrick is not much of a finisher and Whiteley is. I will side with the more dangerous man and take Whiteley by TKO.
- Chris Cariaso and Iliarde Santos both enter their fight with 2 consecutive losses. Losing to Iuri Alcantara and Ian McCall is nothing to be ashamed of for Santos. Cariaso's losses to Formiga and Moraga aren't too bad of losses either. These flyweights have come up short against tough competition, but head to head I think this is an obvious choice. Cariaso can use his varied attack to keep Santos off balance. Santos throws heavy haymakers for a flyweight but I think Cariaso can evade those bombs. Cariaso via decision.
- Dave Mitchell had a decent start to 2013 with a win in Chicago but could not follow it up when he lost to Mike Pierce in July. Yan Cabral is making his UFC after being forced to leave TUF Brazil with an injury. He enters this fight undefeated but is facing a major step up in competition. Nobody notable is on Cabral's hit list other than his last opponent, "The Gracie Hunter" Kazushi Sakuraba. Although legendary, Sakuraba is washed up. I think Mitchell is getting underrated in this fight and he could beat the Brazilian in his hometown. Mitchell via TKO.
- Making his UFC debut against Ildemar Alcantara is Igor Araujo. I know little about Igor, but I know that Alcantara is a killer with a submission win at light heavyweight. At 170, Alcantara should be a force to be reckoned with. Alcantara via a cool submission. (kneebar or armbar)
Same channel main card:
- TJ Dillashaw fights for Team Alpha Male and Duane "Bang" Ludwig. These fighters are now 13-0 in the UFC since he has been their head coach. Dillashaw has a really tough opponent in front of him, especially in Brazil. Raphael Assuncao is now 4-0 since making the drop to bantamweight. Dillashaw is on a 4 fight win streak since losing to Dodson on the TUF 14 Finale. If he wins against Assuncao he will likely try to jump on to that stacked UFC on Fox 9 card in California. But that is a big if. Assuncao is world class talent and will have the home crowd behind him. I like Assuncao but I cannot go against a tough Dillashaw and a 13-0 coach. Dillashaw via nasty KO.
- The aforementioned Mike Pierce cannot be mentioned without the words "underrated" and "disrespected." He has amassed a win streak currently at 4. But in his last 10, he is 8-2 with split decision losses to top rated welterweights Josh Koscheck and Johny Hendricks. He is getting his first really tough opponent since the Koscheck fight (that I thought he won) in Rousimar Palhares. I used to be a huge Palhares fan, knowing how dangerous his heel hook from hell is. But recently, I noticed that he is awful and keeping his wits about him when he is being punched, like in the Belcher and Lombard losses he is coming off of. Like I said, I am a big Palhares fan, but I think he gets rattled when Pierce is beating his face in. Pierce has never been finished before, so I think that trend continues. Pierce via TKO.
- Fabio Maldonado and Joey Beltran have some of the biggest hearts and toughness in the UFC. They also are lacking in top level talent. That is the recipe for a slugfest that should get the fans all riled up. I think Beltran has a boxing disadvantage which will lead to a loss. But these tough dudes will stay standing no matter how many hard shots are landed. FOTN decision win for Maldonado.
- Thiago Silva is on a rise back from obscurity following his 1st round KO of Feijao. I think Hamill's wrestling could cause Thiago fits in this fight. If Silva can stuff the takedown, this fight is no contest. I am leaning Silva, but I would not be surprised if Hamill bores us to death and takes a wrestling win home. Silva catches him in my opinion and secures a TKO finish in the 3rd.
- From one Silva to the next, Erick Silva will look to prove why he is a highly hyped prospect in the UFC. His loss to Jon Fitch impressed me as much as his sick win over Jason High. However, I currently have Dong-Hyun Kim ranked very high in the welterweight division at #7. While most "experts" would call me an idiot, I say nay. He has 1 legitimate loss to Carlos Condit when Carlos was on a tear and became the welterweight interim king. He also lost to Demian Maia, but that was a freak injury that forced him to stop the fight. He has a pretty good list of wins over Matt Brown, TJ Grant, Nate Diaz, Paulo Thiago, and others. His wrestling really neutralizes his opponent's strategy. I like Silva's ground game and think he is still very capable of winning this fight. But I am taking Kim without much worry to win this fight via decision.
- Onto the main event. 5 rounds scheduled for Maia and Shields to never be more than a foot away from one another. These two have 1 thing on their mind whenever they fight, grappling. They both like to be glued to their opponent to throw clinch strikes and take the fight to the ground. From there, they look to pass guard and look for submission openings. Neither man has ever been submitted. Neither man has a great striking game. I think Shields had more success at middleweight than welterweight, yet Maia is the opposite. If this fight is at middleweight, I take Shields. But at welterweight, I go with Maia. I think Shields depletes himself too much at 170. I go with Maia to win this with a decision. No submissions here, they both defend too well. Shields is known for baiting his opponents by giving them his neck or an arm so they waste energy going for the submission, but he is smart enough not to do that here. Still, again, Maia to win a 5 round chess match.
UFC award predicitons:
SOTN: Alcantara
KOOTN: Dillashaw
FOTN: Maldonado/Beltran
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