UFC 161 Recap

Roy Nelson has one of the best chins in MMA history.

The injury bug struck this event with a fury, but the UFC managed to still put on a quality show.  Winnipeg saw quite a few upsets and close decisions.  As always, I start with the Facebook fights:

• The first of many controversial decisions.  Yves Jabouin gets the Canadian judges help with a split decision over Dustin Pague.  I think Pague won all 3 rounds and got screwed.  Hopefully Dana sees this and gives the kid one more chance before cutting him.
• Since winning his first two UFC fights, John Maguire has now lost 3 straight.  Since starting 9-0, Mitch Clarke began 0-2 in the UFC.  He edged out Maguire to win his first UFC fight.

FX Prelims:

• 3 controversial decisions to start the night.  Canadian Roland Delorme gets a hometown decision in an exciting fight.  Two of the three rounds could have gone either way.  Figueroa survived a back mount in round 1 but couldn't do enough damage to win the fight.  Exciting ground game action between these two.
• Another controversial decision.  Robertson definitely lost the first two rounds to Pierson.  Then in the 3rd he rocked him and dominated him on the ground for the remainder of the fight.  He maybe should have let Pierson stand up and finish him while he was rocked, but Robertson is comfortable with his ground game.  I believe the judge that gave Kenny a 10-8 third round and scored the fight a tie was correct, but Pierson walks away with a rare majority decision anyway.  (cough cough Canadian judges)
•  Sam Stout is a UFC veteran against a UFC newcomer known for losing in any fights in big time promotions.   Krause actually looked like the more calm and composed fighter.  Yet again Stout showed off his chin but was outclassed by James Krause.  Knowing the Canadian judges had been really sketchy up to this point, Krause made sure to get the win via bloody guillotine choke.  Krause took home Fight and Submission of the Night honors to become a rich man and a potential new UFC star.
• Jake Shields was never accused of being the most exciting fighter, but he is one of the more dominant fighters.  He took home a split decision that Dana White HATED.  White called it boring and said Woodley got screwed.  I believe he won all three rounds and there was no controversy.  Yes, Jake didn't do a lot, but Woodley did less.  Woodley needs to be more explosive and not be neutralized by a dominant grappler like Shields.  I think the one judge that scored it 30-27 for Woodley should be fired.

Pay-Per View:

• Shawn Jordan's stock went up when he took out fan favorite Pat Barry in less than a minute.  He took home KO of the Night honors.
• I don't think anyone expected Rosi Sexton to even give Alexis Davis a fight.  She impressed despite the loss.  Davis looked good but is far from title shot ready at the moment.
• I thought following his tough fight against Te-Huna, Jimmo looked sloppy against Pokajac.  Igor looked even more unimpressive.  Good win for Jimmo in a non-eventful fight.
• Who would have thought that Stipe Miocic would beat Roy Nelson last Saturday night.  For some reason I did, yet I picked Nelson anyway.   Stipe looked outstanding using his long jab to neutralize Roy.  Needless to say, Roy's chin put on a show again despite the loss.  He is still a top 10 heavyweight, but Miocic is too.  Huge upset.
• Yet another split decision finished off the night of controversy.  Dan Henderson lost a split decision for the second straight fight.  Rashad Evans finally gets in the W column.  Neither fighter impressed in a somewhat dull main event that should have been 5 rounds!  Good for Rashad, who I still think belongs a middleweight.  Mousasi/Evans anybody?

Picks entering UFC 161: 82/142
Picks for event: 6/11
Pick totals: 88/153=57.5%

UFC bonuses:
FOTN: Krause/Stout
SOTN: Krause
KOOTN: Jordan

Brutal Sports Awards:
 Beatdown of the Night: Stipe Miocic
Sketchiest Decision of the Night: ALL OF THEM (but I am giving Jaboin/Pague the nod)
Upset of the Night: Stipe Miocic

The cut list:

• John Maguire
• Igor Pokajac

Three Stars:

1.  James Krause
2. Stipe Miocic
3. Josh Burkman (WSOF upset was so good he is the third star over anyone on this card)

The Fall of Fitch

Unconscious Jon Fitch has reached
an all time low in his fighting career.

Fighting is a very delicate sport where careers can be made or destroyed in a single instant.  Rashad Evans is an example of a fighter who was the champion that finds himself on the hot seat just a few years later.  Others, like Forrest Griffin and Dominick Cruz see injuries potentially shatter their dreams of competing on a high level.  As for Jon Fitch, it is an entirely different story.  Jon Fitch is probably one of the top 5 welterweights in MMA history.  He has impressive win streaks, incredible wrestling, cardio, and tremendous submission skills.  He has been in the Octagon with GSP, Demian Maia, BJ Penn, Erick Silva and Paulo Thiago and they could not submit him.  On June 14th from Las Vegas, Jon Fitch has been submitted by Josh Burkman.  I literally laughed when Burkman dropped into half guard to finish the choke because Fitch is known for giving up an arm or his neck as bait so his opponent wears out his arms or gives up a dominant position.  Fitch is a jiu jitsu black belt under Dave Camarillo and was just destroyed by Burkman.  Here is my take on the downfall of one of my favorite fighters.

Now first, some of you are immediately confused by my last statement.  Yes, Jon Fitch is one of my favorite fighters.  He gets heat for being a "boring" fighter, but I find his matches incredibly entertaining.  I think it is truly amazing how every guy he fights almost gets a claustrophobic feeling when they fight him.  Fitch makes it so you can't breathe, you can't move, and you can't win.  He smothers opponents and outworks them bell to bell.  Yeah he may not knock you out silly, but he makes you know you've been in a fight.  Throw in Rusty Cage by Johnny Cash as his walkout song and you have me won over.

As for his downfall, it is a sad one for me to watch.  Things have never been easy for Fitch.  The Purdue Boilermaker was a walk on to the Purdue wrestling team, only to graduate as team captain and oh yeah, a national champion.  He actually had one of the longer winning streaks in MMA and UFC history, yet he did not get a title shot for the longest time.  It amazes me how he won 8 straight UFC fights and 16 straight including other promotions before he finally fought GSP.  Even though it was a route, Fitch and GSP took home Fight of the Night bonuses after the match.  He then went on to win 5 straight without getting a rematch.  A tie to BJ Penn and of course the shocking knockout by Johny Hendricks ended his aspirations
of getting that rematch.  That KO may have done more damage than we thought.  A ridiculous KO like that can do a lot of things to a man.  Fitch may not be alone in this downfall.  My other examples:

• Rashad Evans: Since the Lyoto Machida knockout, he has not been the same.  TBD on if Rashad can bounce back.  But his fights against Jones and Little Nog did not turn out so well.
• Mark Hominick: He was a top contender and still to date the toughest fight of Jose Aldo's career.  Following a valiant effort against Aldo, he was knocked senseless by Jung.  Since then, he has lost two decisions and retired.
• Joe Stevenson: Most of you probably forgot this guy was even alive.  He once fought BJ Penn for the Lightweight Championship.  He lost a few submissions and decisions, but since being knocked out by Mac Danzig, he has done nothing but lose.  Even in the RFA Stevenson came up short against Dakota Cochrane and has lost his last 5 fights.  This is closest to Fitch.  Not only was he a former contender, but he could not even win in his new promotion.
• Miguel Torres: Last but not least, Miguel Torres was not only a top contender but also a champion.  He started his career 37-1 and won the WEC belt.  He defended the belt a few times before Brian Bowles knocked him out.  He has gone 3-5 since then and also lost in the WSOF after being released from the UFC.

So as you can see, the Hendricks KO may have had long lasting effects on the mind of Jon Fitch.  It is not easy to simply be knocked out cold, then decide to go right back into the cage and be the same guy.  Not everyone is Forrest Griffin.  Even Gray Maynard could be a guy that never returns to prominence since being knocked out by Edgar and now Grant.  This is a tough sport and it is not easy to come back from such adversity.

Why am I making such a big deal about Jon Fitch then?  This has less to do with my personal fanfare of Fitch, and more to do with the fall from grace with Dana White and the UFC.  Recently, Fitch released his finances and talked about how the UFC was a hostile work environment.  How fighters are underpaid and Dana White is the bad guy.  Fitch has been a huge center of focus in the MMA world since being released.  Fighters around the world almost have to be rattled that he was defeated so soundly because they needed him to make Dana look stupid.  They had a better chance of starting a fighter union and getting more money before Fitch became an afterthought.  Even though the WSOF is going to keep Fitch as a premier guy going forward, his days as a relevant fighter in mixed martial arts are gone.  It is unfortunate but a reality that the top level talent eventually falls into mediocrity.  Mediocrity is not even the case for Fitch.  He is gone, maybe forever, maybe not.  The man who received praise by many in his last UFC fight for not being finished by Maia (arguably the best submission artist in MMA), was just choked out in under a minute by a relative nobody.  Fitch is also known for his resiliency, but if he comes back from this and rises to the top, it would be a miracle.

I do have to give credit to Dana White for being a big man about this, at least for now.  I am sure he will have plenty of smart remarks about Fitch during UFC 161 press conferences, but on Twitter Dana focused completely on his hatred for ref Steve Mazzagatti rather than berate Fitch through social media.  Good for you Dana.  Oh and really Steve Mazzagatti?  You weren't even in the general vicinity of the two fighters!  I know Fitch is hard to choke out and I couldn't believe he actually was out, but it is your job to be there checking on that.  Class act by Burkman to call his own fight over.

UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson

Where Shields wants to be against Woodley and
where Henderson does not want to be against Evans.

UFC 161 was once considered a must see fight card, but now is only considered a solid one.  Injuries have ruined a stacked card, but all is not lost.  Little Nog and Renan Barao were the two injured that pulled out of their fights.  Chael tried to save the day and fight Shogun, but unfortunately the American Gangster is not allowed into Canada so the fight was moved to Fox Sports 1:1.  Nevertheless, Rashad Evans, Dan Henderson, Roy Nelson and others will guarantee a good show will still be put on.

As always, Facebook kicks things off:

• Yves Jabouin should have no trouble with Dustin Pague.  He should use his experience and solid striking to earn a decision that sends Pague packing.  Jabouin via decision.
• I think John Maguire is spending too much time worrying about Twitter and not enough about his fight.  The good news is he is fighting on Facebook, since he is clearly such a big social media fan.  I think Mitch Clarke is a sneaky guy and could actually be a decent lightweight going forward.  I'll take Clarke to win this with a decision.

Off to FX we go for some more action:

• When Roland Delorme and Edwin Figueroa square off, they will both be coming off of losses to Francisco Rivera.  Delorme's was change to a no contest for illegal substances, but the point is they both were knocked out by Rivera.  I like Delorme in this one but Figueroa is the kind of guy that can stay away from big damage.  He lost to Michael McDonald, but did not get finished by that killer.  I think Delorme may get the better of the exchanges early, but I think Figueroa is good enough to not be finished.  I am actually taking Figueroa to win a controversial decision that should be exciting and could go either way.
• Welterweights Sean Pierson and Kenny Robertson should be a surprise delight for fight fans.  Although they aren't the sexiest names on the UFC roster, they are talented and exciting.  Kenny showed some serious ground skills in Anaheim winning Submission of the Night honors.  Pierson is a veteran of the game making a late run before he career comes to an end.  I think the 37 year old will have his hands full with the ground game of Robertson.  Normally the ground game is a "boring" aspect of MMA to casual fans, but Robertson is not a lay and pray type of fighter.  I think Kenny takes home another spectacular submission finish, taking the arm of Pierson late in round 1.  Robertson via armbar.
• James Krause and Sam Stout are set to go toe to toe for three rounds following Robertson and Pierson.  Stout is developing a habit of leaving all his fights in the judges hands.  Unlike GSP or Fitch, Stout does this not by being boring, but by having a sick chin and taking punishment.  Krause is entering this fight on quite the win streak, as he makes his UFC debut.  Based on record, Krause is a hell of a fighter.  However, he is 0-3 in organizations worthy of note.  0-2 in the WEC (although Cerrone and Lamas are amazing fighters) and 0-1 in Bellator will not get you confidence in fighting on the big stage.  Despite avenging that Bellator loss to Toby Imada in his last fight, I still think he falters on the big stage against a savvy veteran like Stout.  Naturally, Stout via decision.
• The final fight on FX is one that I cannot for the life of me understand why it is on the prelims.  With all of the injuries this card has undergone, they left Shields and Woodley on the prelims!!!  That is a joke.  The winner of this fight is guaranteed to become a top 10 welterweight.  Jake Shields is just a few years removed from defending the Strikeforce Middleweight Championship against the main event legend Dan Henderson.  He has losses to GSP and Ellenberger since then but is still a dominant grappler and submission artist.  Woodley is a great wrestler and striker with Nate Marquardt as his only MMA blemish.  With names like Saffiedine, Daley, and Mein on his hit list and a spectacular 30 second KO in his UFC debut, Woodley is a sexy prospect in the welterweight division.  However, he has not been in there with a high level guy like Shields.  I fully expect Woodley to have his moments, but it will ultimately be Jake dominating him against the cage and on the ground to win this fight.  I would not be surprised if Jake submitted Woodley, but I am going to predict Shields via unanimous decision.

PPV time:

• Pat Barry is somewhat of a fan favorite that I never understood.  I think Barry is just a subpar heavyweight that has no business being on a main card of a UFC event.  Shawn Jordan is a super athletic guy that demonstrated his chin and resilience against Mike Russow in Chicago.  I think Jordan can take whatever Barry is dishing and use his pure athleticism to get the win.  Could be a knockout, but I think Jordan secures a guillotine choke win over Pay Barry.
• Alexis Davis is the heavy favorite entering her fight with Rosi Sexton and deservingly so.  Not only has she fought in bigger organizations, Strikeforce and Invicta FC, but she has faced higher competition.  I think Alexis Davis dominated her in all aspects and eventually sinks in a choke.  Davis via first round Rear-naked choke.
• Apparently Ryan Jimmo vs Igor Pokrajac is a more important fight than Shields vs Woodley, since it gets the honor of making the PPV.  I disagree, but that does not mean this fight shouldn't be some fun.  Jimmo actually has a sneakily impressive hit list during his 17 fight unbeaten streak, including Bellator's top contender, veteran Wilson Gouveia, and Sokoudjou.  He then tied the faster KO in UFC history in his debut and rocked James Te-Huna in a close losing effort in his short UFC tenure.  Pokrajac, a UFC veteran was also bested by Te-Huna back at UFC 110.  Igor has since then gone downhill a little bit.  I think Jimmo is a guy that will make a name for himself with both his fighting and dancing.  Jimmo should utilized his well rounded game to sneak away with a decision.
• I must admit at this point, these picks have been difficult to make, although some fights seem obvious. Roy Nelson vs Stipe Miocic is one that should seem like a no brainer.  Yet, I feel the need to pick Miocic for some reason.  Not even two months removed from knocking out Cheick Kongo, Nelson is on a 3 fight winning streak that has people calling for a title shot.  His recent comments about Daniel Cormier being an "Uncle Tom" have him in some trouble, but the UFC needs him to save this card so bad that no disciplinary action has been taken yet.  As for Miocic, the Croatian (actually born in Ohio) is looking to bounce back from his first career loss.  He has some good standup and a huge reach advantage over Roy.  Nelson's overhand right has hit people with bigger reach advantages however.  The idea of Miocic knocking Nelson out is preposterous due to Nelson's unbelievable chin, but a win could be coming Miocic's way with a decision.  I also for some reason am thinking Nelson is going to finally put that BJJ blackbelt to use and submit Miocic.  After my constant flip flopping I finally am just going with the obvious.  Roy Nelson via overhand right KO in the first round yet again.
• Finally comes the main event of the evening, featuring two guys with something to prove.  The champ Jonny Bones Jones is booked to fight Alexander Gustafsson, so this is not a top contender fight.  However, the winner may find himself fighting Glover Teixeira or Lyoto Machida for a title shot with a win.  Henderson was the #2 light heavyweight when he lost a controversial split decision to Machida in Anaheim at UFC 157.  Rashad has not lost two straight, to Bones and Little Nog.  Rashad "Suga" Evans is now just looking like Rashad "Splenda" Evans, fearing his opponent at all times.  He is no longer the kid who loves to fight, but now the coward who fears to exchange.  He says he wants a rematch with Machida, and a win over Henderson may grant him that.  But since he lost his title to Machida via vicious knockout, Rashad has not been the man we grew to love.  Evans needs to not only win this fight, but prove he is ready to be a top light heavyweight again.  A game of patty cake will not sit well with the UFC brass, who are on a mission to cut anyone off pay role who isn't being exciting, or a winner.  On a side note, UFC 156 was the first time since UFC 73 that Evans was not fighting in the main event.  He is back there yet again, so the fans expect the best out of him.  Dan Henderson is not getting any younger, but he is getting better.  I think he learned from the Machida fight that he needs to press the issue more and engage.  When Rashad is on the outside just trying to avoid Henderson's right hand, I think Dan will be more aggressive.  Henderson has the wrestling credentials to at least match Rashad's.  He, like Roy Nelson, has one of the best chins in MMA history, and will need it to walk through Rashad and engage him.  I think Rashad is a mess mentally and a drop from the light heavyweight division might be the only thing to get his mind right.  Hopefully he can bounce back and maybe become a top middleweight, but I fear the end is near for Evans as a top 10 fighter.  Henderson should win this fight and take on Glover Teixeira in a top contender fight in a perfect world.  Will it be with his right hand, or Olympic wrestling is the only thing I am unsure of.  3 rounds despite the main event, I think Rashad eventually gets tagged and turtles up.  Henderson TKOs "Splenda" late.

Picks entering the last event: 76/130

Event picks: 6/12

Prediction career totals: 82/142=57.8%

Bonus Predictions:

KOOTN: Roy Nelson

SOTN: Robertson 

FOTN: Henderson/Evans

Nogueira/Werdum 3 stars:

1. Fabricio Werdum
2. Erick Silva
3. Thiago Silva

Stanley Cup Final

Bruins looking to build off a sweep of the Penguins

Again I got the East correct but was let down in the West.  What does this mean going into the finals?  I have no idea.  However, out of pure hatred for Chicago I am going with Boston.  I am very much against Jagr winning another Stanley Cup, but even more so against Hossa winning his second.  All in all I think this hockey season is very upsetting due to the teams in the finals.  Nevertheless, I am pulling for Tuukka and company to get it done.

BOSTON IN 6!



Side Notes:
Tuukka Rask made 134 saves on 136 shots in the Penguins series to show tremendous improvement from letting in a sketchy goal to Hagelin in the second round.  That 98.5 save percentage is the best in a single playoff series ever.  He has come a long way since his days in Providence.  Uhh, maybe not.  How about now?  Still no, but you have to admire his passion for the game.  Tuukka is looking to win his first Cup as a starter, similar to the way Chris Osgood did it in 98, following up Vernon's Cup win in 97.

Jarome Iginla was traded to both Boston and Pittsburgh, so it was up to him to waive his no trade clause to whatever team he desired to be on.  Mistake on his part?

You think Toews was happy to say goodbye to Zetterberg and move onto LA where he could have more success against Jeff Carter?  I'm sure he will thoroughly enjoy the Chara/Seidenberg/Bergeron treatment in the finals.  Just kidding, he won't score.

UFC on Fuel TV 10: Nogueira vs Werdum Quick Picks

Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante knocks out King Mo
to win the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship.

Due to time constraints and other factors, I am going with gut feelings over research.  Here is how I see Saturday's fights from Brazil going down:

Facebook:

• Antonio Braga Neto defeats Anthony Smith via armbar
• Karlos Vemola via RNC over Caio Magalhaes
• Mizuto Hirota wins a decision over Rodrigo Damm
• Ildemar Alcantara first round TKO of Leandro Silva
• Godofredo Castro decision win over Felipe Arantes
• Raphael Assuncao over Vaughan Lee via dominant decision

Fuel TV:

• Rony Mariano Bezerra with a TKO finish of Mike Wilkinson
• Erick Silva submits Jason High with an arm triangle choke
• Daniel Sarafian with a first round KO of Eddie Mendez
• Rafael Cavalcante makes an impressive UFC debut by destroying Thiago Silva in the standup on his way to a Knockout of the Night bonus.  If you have not seen Feijao (Cavalcante) vs King Mo, watch it.
• William Macario wins TUF Brazil with a decision victory over Leonardo Santos
• As for the main event, I have gone back and forth on this one.  I am a huge fan of both Werdum and Nogueira.  Big Nog had beaten Werdum back in the day in Saitama.  That was back when only Fedor was better than Nogueira in the heavyweight division.  Werdum's striking has jumped leaps and bounds since that original fight.  Werdum is the man who ended Fedor's unbelievable unbeaten streak.  Werdum is the man who dismantled Roy Nelson for 3 rounds. Werdum is only a win or two off a title shot.  Yet I think the boxing of Nogueira and his incredible head movement will result in a win.  I think Big Nog is deceptive because he looks as though he is incredibly aged.  What I mean by that is that he looks old, he looks like he has been to hell and back, and looks like he has nothing left in the tank.  That is not true.  He isn't young anymore but he is still a top 10 heavyweight who is not done yet.  I see Nogueira outclassing him and taking a decision to derail Werdum's title aspirations.

Picks entering this event are at 76/130 (58.5%)

Outside of the main event I did no research so we will see how much my gut knows about mixed martial arts.