Saturday, August 31, 2013

UFC 164 Picks

Showtime Kick!
So my procrastination combined with a double fight week has me rushing to do my picks for this event.  Lucky for you readers, I will make this quick.  Headlined by an amazing rematch of the best lightweights in the WEC and UFC, UFC 164 is one stacked card.

Facebook:

  • Hamman and Cedenblad both suck.  Hamman via who cares.
  • Ryan Couture was brought back to earth with his loss to Ross Pearson.  Al Iaquinta was a stud on TUF Live before Chiesa submitted him in the finals.  I actually like Al to steal a win here.  Iaquinta via decision.
  • I am pumped that Soa Palelei is making a comeback to the UFC.  He is apparently the underdog to Nikita Krylov.  Thanks for free money Vegas.  Palelei via 1st round KO.
FS1 Prelims:
  • Kyung Ho Kang and Chico Camus are fighting in an interesting bantamweight bout.  I don't really know a ton about these guys but I have at least seen Camus fight before.  I'll take Camus via decision.
  • I saw Pascal Krauss fight live in Chicago against Mike Stumpf.  I literally fell asleep during this fight it was so bad.  Lim Hyun-Gyu is a guy I know nothing about.  I have to say, my predictions are pretty much guesses so far.  I guess I will pick Lim out of principle since Krauss was so boring.
  • Louis Gaudinot has not fought in over a year since his FOTN win over Lineker.  Tim Elliot is a solid flyweight as well.  I like Gaudinot's nasty guillotine finishing off Elliot.
  • Jamie Varner will destroy Tibau and become a top lightweight yet again.  On a night that WEC lightweight champions are going at it in the main event, the former WEC star Varner will return to stardom as well.  Varner via first round KO.
PPV:
  • Do not be late for the Pay-Per View portion of fights.  Koch vs Poirier could be Fight of the Year.  I ranked it #3 on my list of great fights, but the closer it gets to fight night, the more I get pumped for this match.  Holy crap!  Poirier is fighting Koch!  This is a hugely important battle of very young featherweight prospects.  Koch was DESTROYED in his last fight against Lamas while Poirier was bested by the red hot Cub Swanson in a Fight of the Night performance.  Poirier also has a Fight of the Year against the Korean Zombie not too long ago as well.  Koch has dominated everyone he faced but Mendes and Lamas, but those are the 2nd and 3rd best 145 lb fighters on the planet.  No shame in those losses.  Poirier lost to another top 4 featherweight in Swanson and the very talented Zombie.  Outside of those losses, its been nothing short of domination by these two young stars.  I keep going back and forth on this one.  I am doing a conditional pick.  If LSU beats TCU, then the LSU fan Poirier will get the W.  If TCU wins, then Koch will also get it done.  I say this with the impression that TCU will lose to LSU.  Poirier via split decision, FOTN and LSU beats TCU 42-35.  When in doubt, pick the man with the better walkout song, Dustin Poirier.
  •  Brandon Vera thinks he is a heavyweight again.  He looked halfway decent against Shogun, but Shogun just lost to Chael Sonnen.  So how good is Vera if he hung in there against a non-top 10 light heavyweight?  Not very.  Rothwell was submitted by Gabriel Gonzaga in his last outing.  I think Vera lands good shots but Rothwell's chin can eat them.  Vera struggles off his back and that is exactly where Rothwell will put him.  Rothwell with a late TKO finish.
  • Clay Guida is a huuuuge underdog against Chad Mendes according to Vegas.  While I agree that Mendes is far superior to Guida, this fight scares me.  Guida is unpredictable as a fighter can be.  Will he "Clay and pray," jump around like an idiot, or come out to brawl?  Who knows.  I think Guida has a chin to handle Mendes in the standup game.  But Chad should still outclass him on his way to a dominant decision win.  Mendes is on a 3 fight win streak all with 1st round KO's since his loss to Aldo.  He is a machine and should come out on top yet again.  Mendes 30-27 over Guida.
  • What do Frank Mir and Josh Barnett have in common?  Pretty much everything.  They both were UFC Heavyweight Champions.  They both have a sick submission game.  They both talk trash with the best of them.  And they both have recently lost to Daniel Cormier.  Last time Barnett was in the UFC he won the heavyweight belt from Randy Couture at UFC 36.  He has been very impressive since then.  I like Mir in this one though.  Barnett has great submissions, but Mir is better.  Mir submitted Big Nog and is just a fiend at ripping off limbs and putting people to sleep.  Mir via technical submission, armbar.
  • The final fight in the WEC may have been the best fight in WEC history.  Anthony Pettis won the WEC Lightweight Championship from Benson Henderson in his hometown of Glendale, Arizona.  He was supposed to face the winner of Edgar vs Maynard to unify the belts, but a draw in their UFC 125 title fight forced Pettis to take another fight to stay active.  He lost to Clay Guida and never got his deserved title shot.  Benson worked his way to a title shot with wins over Jim Miller and of course, Clay Guida.  This rematch was bound to happen eventually and now it finally is.  I still am upset that TJ Grant is not getting this fight, but stuff happens.  Pettis is arrogant and making the biggest mistake of his life by being impatient.  There is no way he is healthy enough to come back from his knee surgery and beat Benson Henderson.  There will be some poetic justice with Pettis losing to Henderson in his hometown of Milwaukee just like Henderson lost in his hometown in the first fight.  As always in a Ben Henderson fight, it will be a controversial decision.  But I feel Benson will be the deserving winner of the decision.  Sorry Pettis, but get in line at 145.  Benson Henderson stay king of the lightweights with a split decision win.  Those of you who know me, know I hate Benson.  The dude is so good at fighting though, and will tie BJ Penn's record tonight!
Bonus Predictions:
FOTN: Koch/Poirier
SOTN: Mir
KOOTN: Varner


DO NOT MISS THESE FIGHTS!!!!!

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