UFC 170 Picks

The Sara McMann bow will be her signature highlight forever,
unless she gets some awesome finishes in her UFC career.

I am not going to lie when I say that I am not all that excited for this event.  Nevertheless, it could be filled with some of the biggest upsets of the year if it is the right person's night.  Take a look at who I think will win:

Fight Pass:

• Yosdenis Cedeno and Ernest Chavez are making their debuts so I am just going with the odds on favorite and taking Cedeno via decision.
• Erik Koch was scheduled to fight Jose Aldo less than a year ago.  Today he will be making an appearance at lightweight after dropping back to back fights to Lamas and Poirier.  Koch should have no problem taking home a win against Rafaello Oliveira.  Koch via KO.

FS1 Prelims:

• Zach Makovsky is coming off a win over highly respected Scott Jorgensen.  His opponent Josh Sampo is a beast at flyweight as well but I see Makovsky taking a close split decision here.
• Aljamain Sterling and Cody Gibson are both debuting in the UFC at bantamweight.  I like Sterling in this one to win a decision.
• Rafael Assuncao is the first guy who is almost a guaranteed win on this card.  However, Pedro Munhoz will try his best to pull off the upset.  Assuncao via submission in the first round is my prediction. (Armbar?)
• Alexis Davis and Jessica Eye definitely should be on the PPV in my opinion.  This is a top contender fight in all likelihood.  I see Davis using her reach advantage and experience advantage to pick Eye apart.  Eye has been the subject of some controversy in her brief UFC career.  She better put on a big performance or win if she wants to keep her job secure.

PPV:

• Robert Whittaker and Stephen Thompson are two guys that could be title contenders at 170 in my opinion.  In the battle of the prospects I like Whittaker to utilize his superior striking to finish "Wonderboy" off.  Despite his flashy striking and hype, I think Thompson is at a striking disadvantage here and the grappling is pretty much a toss up.
• Mike Pyle and TJ Waldburger are not worthy of being on pay-per view ever.  I am not excited for this fight at all.  However, I hope Mike Pyle can reach his potential and go on a winning streak here.  Pyle via TKO.
• Demian Maia has been a beast since dropping down to welterweight.  He lost a close split decision in his last outing against Jake Shields so will come back better than ever.  Rory MacDonald also is coming off a loss and yet his hype has never been bigger.  People still consider him to be the successor to GSP but I do not.  I say Maia outwrestles MacDonald and holds his own in the striking on his way to a decision win.
• Daniel Cormier will beat Patrick Cummins and he will be a douchebag in the process.  I would love to see DC lose but Cummins has no chance.  DC via decision because he is too weak of a puncher to ever finish a fight in the UFC.
• Ronda Rousey has finally seen the 2nd and 3rd round for the first time in her life.  On short notice she is taking on an Olympic medalist in wrestling in Sara McMann.  I think McMann has a better chance with Ronda Rousey than anyone prior, but I still see Rousey winning this with an armbar.  I say 2nd round just because McMann is beastly enough to survive the first without giving up an arm.

Updated Fighter Rankings (2/4/14)

Renan Barao is dancing himself into
the pound for pound best discussion.

2013 was a great year for MMA and 2014 should be a solid one to follow.  Here is how I have all the divisions stacking up following UFC 169 on February 1st:

Men's Pound for Pound:

1. Jose Aldo (1)
2. Jon Jones (2)
3. Renan Barao (5)
4. Chris Weidman (3)
5. Georges St. Pierre (4)
6. Demetrious Johnson (6)
7. Cain Velasquez (7)
8. Anderson Silva (8)
9. Johny Hendricks (10)
10. Vitor Belfort (11)
11. Anthony Pettis (12)
12. Dominick Cruz (13)
13. Chad Mendes (14)
14. Junior Dos Santos (15)
15.  Urijah Faber (9)
16. Frankie Edgar (17)
17. Gilbert Melendez (18)
18. Joe Benavidez (19)
19. Michael McDonald (20)
20.  Benson Henderson (16)

Heavyweight:

1. Cain Velasquez (1)
2. Travis Browne (2)
3. Daniel Cormier (3)
4. Fabricio Werdum (4)
5. Junior Dos Santos (5)
6. Stipe Miocic (7)
7. Mark Hunt (6)
8. Antonio Silva (8)
9. Josh Barnett (10)
10. Stefan Struve (11)
11. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (12)
12. Alistair Overeem (14)
13.  Roy Nelson (15)
14. Gabriel Gonzaga (9)
15. Ben Rothwell (16)
16. Brendan Schaub (17)
17. Cheick Kongo (18)
18. Shawn Jordan (19)
19. Frank Mir (13)
20. Soa Palelei (20)

Light Heavywight:

1. Jon Jones (1)
2. Glover Teixeira (2)
3. Alexander Gustafsson (3)
4. Rashad Evans (4)
5. Phil Davis (5)
6. Gegard Mousasi (6)
7. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (7)
8. Ryan Bader (8)
9. Emanuel Newton (9)
10. Shogun Rua (10)
11. Rampage Jackson (11)
12. Dan Henderson (12)
13. Chael Sonnen (13)
14. Attila Vegh (14)
15. Jimi Manuwa (15)
16. Rafael Cavalcante (16)
17. James Te-Huna (17)
18. Thiago Silva (18)
19. Muhammed Lawal (19)
20. Ryan Jimmo (20)

Middleweight:

1. Chris Weidman (1)
2. Vitor Belfort (2)
3. Anderson Silva (3)
4. Ronaldo Souza (4)
5. Lyoto Machida (5)
6. Luke Rockhold (14)
7. Tim Kennedy (6)
8. Michael Bisping (7)
9. Alexander Shlemenko (8)
10. Yoel Romero (11)
11. Mark Munoz (9)
12. Yushin Okami (10)
13. Thales Leites (12)
14. Tim Boetsch (13)
15. Cung Le (15)
16. Alan Belcher (16)
17. Francis Carmont (17)
18. Rich Franklin (19)
19. Costa Philippou (18)
20. Clint Hester (NR)

Dropping out: Lorenz Larkin (20)
 
Welterwight:

1. Georges St. Pierre (1)
2. Johny Hendricks (2)
3. Carlos Condit (3)
4. Matt Brown (4)
5. Robbie Lawler (5)
6. Dong Hyun Kim (6)
7. Rory Macdonald (7)
8. Jake Ellenberger (8)
9. Jake Shields (9)
10. Demian Maia (10)
11. Ben Askren (11)
12. Tyrone Woodley (12)
13. Tarec Saffiedine (15)
14. Martin Kampmann (13)
15. Nick Diaz (14)
16. Hector Lombard (16)
17. Steve Carl (17)
18. Josh Burkman (18)
19. Josh Koscheck (19)
20. Brandon Thatch (20)

Lightweight:

1. Anthony Pettis (1)
2. Gilbert Melendez (2)
3. Khabib Nurmagomedov (6)
4. Benson Henderson (3)
5. Josh Thomson (4)
6. TJ Grant (5)
7. Rafael dos Anjos (7)
8. Michael Chandler (8)
9. Eddie Alvarez (9)
10. Donald Cerrone (12)
11. Nate Diaz (10)
12. Jim Miller (11)
13. Gray Maynard (13)
14. Edson Barboza (14)
15. Joe Lauzon (15)
16. Melvin Guillard (16)
17. Norman Parke (17)
18. Rustam Khabilov (18)
19. Bobby Green (19)
20. Abel Trujillo (NR)

Dropping out: Pat Healy (20)

Featherweight:

1. Jose Aldo (1)
2. Chad Mendes (2)
3. Cub Swanson (3)
4. Dustin Poirier (5)
5. Frankie Edgar (6)
6. Ricardo Lamas (4)
7. Conor McGregor (7)
8. Chan Sung Jung (8)
9. Shinya Aoki (9)
10. Erik Koch (10)
11. Dennis Siver (11)
12. Paticio Freire (12)
13. Clay Guida (14)
14. Jeremy Stephens (NR)
15. Dennis Bermudez (15)
16. Daniel Straus (16)
17. Pat Curran (17)
18. Darren Elkins (13)
19. Nik Lentz (18)
20. Tatsuya Kawajiri (NR)

Dropping out: Hatsu Hioki (19), Charles Oliveira (20)

Bantamweight:

1. Renan Barao (1)
2. Dominick Cruz (3)
3. Urijah Faber (2)
4. Rafael Assuncao (4)
5. Michael McDonald (5)
6. T.J. Dillashaw (8)
7. Eddie Wineland (7)
8. Brad Pickett (6)
9. Bibiano Fernandes (9)
10. Marlon Moraes (10)
11. Takeya Mizugaki (11)
12. Yuri Alcantara (12)
13. Tyson Nam (14)
14. Eduardo Dantas (15)
15. Joe Warren (16)
16. Erik Perez (17)
17. Alex Caceres (NR) 
18. Mike Easton (13)
19. George Roop (18)
20. Sergio Pettis (20)

Dropping out: Bryan Caraway (19)

Flyweight:

1. Demetrious Johnson (1)
2. John Dodson (2)
3. Ali Bagautinov (9)
4. Joe Benavidez (4)
5. Ian McCall (6)
6. Jussier Formiga (7)
7. Darrel Montague (8)
8. John Moraga (5)
9. John Lineker (3)
10. Tim Elliot (10)
11. Zack Makovsky (11)
12. Dustin Ortiz (14)
13. Scott Jorgensen (12)
14. Louis Gaudinot (13)
15. Chris Cariaso (NR)
16. Alptekin Ozkilic (15)
17. Phil Harris (NR)
18. Josh Sampo (NR)
19. Danny Martinez (NR)
20. Kyoji Horiguchi (NR)

Women's Pound for Pound:

1. Ronda Rousey (1)
2. Cristiane Santos (2)
3. Sara McMann (3)
4. Jessica Aguilar (4)
5. Alexis Davis (5)
6. Cat Zingano (6)
7. Marloes Coenen (7)
8. Sarah Kaufman (9)
9. Jessica Eye (8)
10. Barb Honchak (11)
11. Miesha Tate (10)
12. Michelle Waterson (12)
13. Liz Carmouche (13)
14. Jessica Penne (14)
15. Amanda Nunes (15)
16. Carla Esparza (16)
17. Shayna Baszler (18)
18. Jessica Andrade (19)
19.  Zoila Gurgel (17)
20. Tecia Torres (NR)

Dropping out:  Rosi Sexton (20)

UFC 169 Picks

It must be amazing to watch Jose Aldo and
Renan Barao spar every day at the gym together.

Unfortunately Dominick Cruz had to pull out of the main event and vacate his title, but UFC 169 is still one of the best cards ever.  I fully expect this to be the "Event of the Year" despite not knowing what the rest of 2014 holds.  Aldo and Barao train together and are both in the pound for pound best conversation.  They both have tough tests in addition to other awesome fights.  Here are my predictions for UFC 169:

Fight Pass Prelims:

• Gasan Umalatov is making his UFC debut as a relative unknown, but Neil Magny has struggled in his UFC career thus far and I see that trend continuing.  Umalatov via decision.
• Rashid Magomedov and Tony Martin are also not on my radar but I know Rashid has a win over top Bellator featherweight Frodo Khasbulaev.  I take Rashid via decision.
• Clint Hester is a monster and Andy Enz is going to realize this quick.  Hester via 1st round KO.

FS1 Prelims:

• Al Iaquinta is taking on undefeated Kevin Lee.  I believe Al is just hitting his stride and will make quick work of Lee.  Iaquinta via KO.
• Tom Watson is a great fighter and entertainer.  He is taking on Nick Catone who is returning to middleweight after an 0-1 stint at 170.  Watson via decision.
• Danny Martinez and Chris Cariaso are very talented flyweights and I have to admit I am torn on this one.  But I think Martinez is going to squeak by with a split decision.
• John Makdessi is fighting outside of Canada for just the second time ever.  Although his first United States trip ended in a loss, I see him getting a big win against Alan Patick in Jersey.  Makdessi via TKO.

PPV:

• Abel Trujillo looked like a man possessed in his win (wins?) over Roger Bowling.  Varner has had an up and down career but I don't think Saturday will be one of his good nights.  Trujillo via decision in what could be Fight of the Night.
• John  Lineker missed weight originally but made it in the second attempt.  That keeps him in somewhat good graces with the UFC and keeps his flyweight title hopes alive.  Personally I would like him to move up to bantamweight but it seems he is set on staying at flyweight.  His opponent Ali Bagautinov is no joke either.  Lineker (kind of) won the weigh in battle yesterday, and I think he will win the fight tonight.  Lineker via vicious KO yet again.
• Alistair Overeem has some of the best striking in the UFC but has a glass chin.  There is a very good chance Mir hits that chin and knocks him out.  However, in Mir's fights win Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett, and Shane Carwin he was beaten up against the cage.  Holding people against the cage and pounding them to death is Alistair's specialty.  Because of this I am going against my hatred of the Reem and the knowledge of his glass chin and taking Alistair Overeem to win via TKO.
• In the first of 2 title fights, Jose Aldo will take on Ricardo Lamas.  I applaud the UFC for scheduling Jose Aldo with the toughest opponent out there rather than the most marketable opponent.  Lamas is unknown to the casual fan, but the hardcore fans know what he is capable of.  He is not the most active fighter but he makes noise when he does get scheduled.  Honestly, I am more worried about Aldo losing to Lamas than I was against the Korean Zombie or even Frankie Edgar.  Lamas has sneakily good striking and is a powerful wrestler.  His ground and pound is very nasty as it was seen against Erik Koch.  He is an elite talent, a scary dude, and is not intimidated by the aura surrounding Jose Aldo.  One way or another, I see this fight ending in the first 2 rounds in violent fashion.  Will Lamas beat the hell out of a seemingly invincible Aldo?  Or will Aldo use his ridiculous skill set to neutralize the power of Lamas and take home another W?  I will always pick Aldo but I do have to admit I am less confident in him today than ever before.  Despite being a -750 favorite, I think Aldo has his hardest fight ever in front of him.  Nevertheless, Aldo via 2nd round TKO.
• Renan Barao and Urijah Faber went at it once before where Barao won a decision over Faber.  Urijah has really hit his stride since them under the tootilidge of Duane Ludwig.  Although Faber looked better than ever in 2013, especially against Michael McDonald, he still has the best bantamweight in the world standing across from him.  Renan Barao has it all and will continue to dominate in the foreseeable future.  Again, I think the odds are favoring Barao more than they should, but I think Barao should be victorious again.  Barao via decision again.

2014 picks: 14/24=58.3%