Monday, December 31, 2012

UFC 155 Thoughts

UFC 155 will be remembered for primarily 3 things: Cain Velasquez regaining his heavyweight title, Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller being awesome at everything they do, and middleweights letting us down with lackluster performances.

This is a night that started on Facebook.  The only submission of the night was recorded in the first fight and it was a beauty.  John Moraga submitted Chris Cariaso with a sick arm in guillotine choke to get the night started.  The Facebook card heated up with youngster Max Holloway battling Leonard Garcia to a controversial split decision victory.  All 3 rounds were close so I find it hard to argue against the decision although I believe Garcia got unlucky with this loss.  Then heavyweight Todd Duffee capped off the Facebook portion of UFC 155 with a vicious TKO of Phil De Fries.  So far so good through 3 fights, I was very entertained.

The rest of the prelims were solid as well. Myles Jury built off his TUF appearance and stayed undefeated by outclassing his opponent for 3 rounds.  Jamie Varner followed Jury up with an exciting battle with Melvin Guillard and won a puzzling split decision.  I thought the fight was a pretty tough one to score, but one judge scored it a 30-27 win for Guillard while the other 2 judges scored it 30-27 in favor of Varner.  I personally had it 29-28 Varner but regardless of who won and how, it was an exciting fight that puts Jamie right back into the mix at 155 lbs.  Erik Perez won the next fight via 1st round TKO making him a HUGE prospect and threat to the bantamweight division.  The FX prelims ended with Eddie Wineland outboxing Brad Pickett in an exciting match.  Pickett stayed tough in the pocket the entire fight but could not muster enough to win the fight and Wineland won via split decision.

After the prelims, my predictions came in at 4-3 which I was ok with since I felt Leonard got robbed.  My predictions got a little dicey with the main card, since my 3 middleweights let me down in disappointing performances.

The PPV card started with Chris Leben laying an egg against Derek Brunson.  Leben was outwrestled and did little to get out from under him.  When striking, Leben did not resemble the dangerous striker that held his own against Brian Stann and knocked out Wanderlei Silva.  Joe Rogan put it very nicely saying it looked like he was trying to punch Brunson while standing in quicksand.  Dana White eluded to some personal problems Leben was facing in the post fight interview, but he said he was not happy with the fight as it was a snoozer.

Next, Alan Belcher looked to win his rematch against Okami.  He was easily wrestled to the ground and could not get the powerful Okami off of him.  When standing, Belcher was afraid to get taken down so could not throw leg kicks like he normally does.  And although Belcher landed some combinations, Yushin would implement the clinch and throw Alan against the cage whenever he did so.  Okami was able to outlast Belcher to take a unanimous decision victory.

Tim Boetsch, like Belcher, was a top contender in the middleweight division coming into his UFC 155 fight against Chris Weidman.  Weidman had to cancel and Costa Philippou jumped in at the chance to fight a top 5 middleweight.  Costa came in and implemented his game plan on his way to a TKO victory over Boetsch.  It was clear something was wrong with Tim.  Joe Rogan said multiple times it seemed like he had a broken hand or wrist or something because Tim would not throw punches with any frequency after the first round.  Boetsch was getting outworked and went for a few takedowns before eventually being outdone.  Costa finished him in the third to make a big statement in the middleweight division, despite it being a lackluster performance on the excitement aspect of fighting.

The co-main event of Jim Miller versus Joe Lauzon was the definition of a perfect match up of fighters and it did not let us down one bit.  I thought this would easily be Fight of the Night, which it was.  Lauzon has developed a reputation for taking home Submission of the Night and Fight of the Night bonuses every fight.  He kept it going against Miller.  In the first round of this epic fight, Miller got loose and never stopped putting a beating on Lauzon.  He landed kicks and punches at will and really never let up on the pressure.  Late in the round he got in a clinch and threw absolutely devastating elbows which hacked Joe's face open.  The second round started out as much of the same, and then Jim went in for a takedown.  He got it and held the top position for a while although he did little from it.  Lauzon's face bled into a puddle on the canvas but he did not let up.  Lauzon eventually got a successful sweep after an awkward stoppage by ref Yves Lavigne and stole the round.  The third round started with Miller kicking Joe's feet from under him.  They exchanged until they were absolutely exhausted.  Lauzon in the final 20 seconds went for a flying scissor heel hook that was very close to being the one of the greatest submissions ever.  Miller narrowly escaped only to be put in a guillotine choke.  He held his own for the waning seconds of the fight to hang on to a decision victory.  This fight was incredible start to finish and saved this card from being a disaster.

The main event had a tough act to follow but it did a pretty solid job in doing so.  Many people thought Cain was unbeatable until he fought Cigano for the first time and was knocked stupid in the first round and lost his belt.  Cain came back to destroy Bigfoot Silva and received his rematch with the champ Junior dos Santos.  Now the shoe is on the other foot.  Many thought JDS to be the same unbeatable force Cain once was.  Well it turns out he is human too.  Cain Velasquez came out of the gate like a mad man.  He came out fast, had good head movement, and pushed the pace.  He did what he could not do in the first fight, secure a takedown.  His wrestling looked spectacular in the entire fight.  Late in the first round was when it all changed though.  Untouchable Junior threw a jab that Cain simply ate as he cocked back his right hand for a massive punch to the jaw of JDS.  This rocked him and got him really beat up in the first round.  After this he looked beat up and tired.  Junior could not stop the takedowns of Cain and could not muster enough energy to throw the vicious combinations we became so used to seeing from him.  Cain mauled him for 5 rounds but could not finish Junior.  I give credit to JDS for surviving the duration of the fight, be he needs to do some serious work if he plans to win the rubber match between them.  This was a great fight and I was happy to see Cain on top again.

The middleweights let me down so I started out 0-3 in my PPV predictions.  However, predicting a FOTN decision win by Miller and an upset by Cain Velasquez helped my predictions seem more legit. (Most people had Alan and Tim winning so I don't feel dumb for picking them).

Overall I finished UFC 155 with a disappointing 6-6 split.  I am now at 12/23 overall at 52% but I am new to the game, have a small sample size, and planning on improving that ASAP.

Friday, December 28, 2012

UFC 155 Official Picks

UFC 155 was announced and it looked to be one of the most stacked cards the UFC had put together in a long time.  Various injuries and changes in matchup have taken place over time to deteriorate the card slightly, but this should be an amazing card full of great fights.  Chael Sonnen, Phil Davis, Forrest Griffin, and Chris Wiedman are all names that were scheduled but had to cancel.  Luckily, Jim Miller and Constantinos "Costa" Philippou were able to save the day, as well as Varner versus Guillard getting rescheduled for 155.

This very exciting main card, as well as prelim card.  My prelim picks are as follows:

  • Leonard Garcia defeats Max Holloway via KO
  • John Moraga defeats Chris Cariaso via Decision
  • Phil De Fries defeats Todd Duffee via Submission (RNC)
  • Myles Jury defeats Michael Johnson via TKO (and gets his 11 consecutive 1st round finish)
  • Jamie Varner defeats Melvin Guillard via Submission (RNC)
  • Erik Perez defeats Byron Bloodworth via Submission (armbar)
  • Brad Pickett defeats Eddie Wineland via Submission (guillotine) (Submission of the Night)
After this exciting slew of fights on Facebook and FX, it is time to go out to your favorite bar for the PPV portion of UFC 155!  This is a card featuring major changes yet incredible entertaining and intriguing fights.
  • Chris Leben and Derek Brunson will kick off the main card on Saturday night.  Leben is a man who has some wicked standup and has all the potential in the world to be a top middleweight.  Coming off 2011 losses to Brian Stann and Mark Munoz, with a win against Wanderlei Silva in between, Leben is looking to get back on track with a big win in his only fight in 2012.  Derek Brunson is on no hot streak of his own, coming into this match with a 2 loss skid.  This is a fight where both guys are looking to knock each other's head off, and should be incredibly entertaining.  I am trusting the veteran to come through with a big win.  Leben via KO.
  • Next up to bat are two of the middleweight division's best: Alan Belcher and Yushin Okami.  This is actually the first of 2 rematches on the card, but the first Belcher/Okami fight goes all the way back to UFC 62.  In the first match, Okami won via unanimous decision.  However we should not expect he same thing since both fighters have evolved and grown vastly since this match.  Since being finished by Anderson Silva and Tim Boetsch, Okami has gotten back into the win column with a TKO victory of his own over Buddy Roberts. He is still one of the bigger guys in the 185 lb division and will be looking to make a statement with a win over Belcher.  Alan Belcher has been on a tear of late, winning 6 of his last 7.  His one loss was a controversial split decision that I found shocking.  Alan Belcher has a sick standup game and proved to us against Palhares that his ground game is not bad either.  I see Alan dominating the standup game and eventually catching Okami with a punch that finishes him. Belcher via KO of the Night.
  • We are staying in the middleweight division for our next fight: Tim Boetsch versus Costa Philippou.  Since Mr. Wonderful, Phil Davis, submitted him, Boetsch has been on a tear winning all 4 of his UFC fights at middleweight.  Costa is on a 4 fight winning streak of his own, against lesser opponents however.  I give Costa credit for stepping in for Wiedman to take Boetsch on, but I do not see this going well for him.  Boetsch is a beast and will be looking to put on a show to make up for a boring fight against Hector Lombard.  I see him dominating all aspect of the fight and taking home a more decisive victory this time around.  Boetsch via Decision.
  • For the co-main event of the night, exciting lightweights Jim Miller and Joe Lauzon will square off.  Miller has 4 career losses to Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard, Benson Henderson, and Nate Diaz.  These are the last 4 guys to fight for the belt in the 155 lb division.  He enjoys fighting the best and gladly stepped in for the injured Gray Maynard to take on the dangerous submission artist Joe Lauzon.  Lauzon is one of the most exciting fighters in the game, racking up a bunch of Submission of the Night and Fight of the Night bonuses over his UFC career.  He has finished every single opponent he has beaten and is a sneaky contender in the lightweight division.  That is where things get interesting.  Miller has only been finished once, when Nate Diaz choked him out in his last fight.  However, I found that to be a fluke of a submission since Miller lost his mouthguard and actually got his tongue stuck between his teeth while Diaz choked him, forcing him to tap.  It was one of the grossest submissions I have seen, but it had some element of luck to it.  As much as I love Joe Lauzon, I see this fight going to the judges scorecard due to Miller's ability to survive submissions.  Lauzon should not be too upset if this is the case because he will likely take home Fight of the Night bonus in his loss.  Miller via Decision.
Main Event of the Night: Velasquez versus Dos Santos II

Cain Velasquez is a destroyer who left a path of destruction behind him on his way to becoming the UFC's Heavyweight Champion.  After defeating Brock Lesnar in spectacular fashion to attain the belt, it looked as though it would stay that way for a long time.  In a shocking turn of events, Junior dos Santos knocked out underfeated Velasquez in the very first round of his first title defense to become champ.  They both have fought once since then, securing dominant victories at UFC 146 as expected.  Dos Santos won with a 2nd round TKO of veteran Frank Mir, and Velasquez by way of dominant ground and pound over Bigfoot.  These 2 guys are above and beyond everyone else in a very stacked heavyweight division.  They are both truly dominant and champion caliber fighters.  JDS has some of the best striking and insane takedown defense to go with it.  Much like former champ Chuck Liddell, takedown defense and KO power is all he needs to win.  Velasquez uses a different approach in his dominant fighting style.  He has good enough striking to hang with most fighters, but he prefers to wrestle people to the ground and pound them into the matt.

The ability of Cain to takedown JDS is still an unknown.  Cain was clipped so early in the first fight that he was never able to try and take him down to issue his ground and pound.  Great takedowns versus great takedown defense is going to be the key to this fight.  If JDS can keep things standing, the result could be the same as last time.  If taken to the ground, Junior could be in for a world of trouble.  This is sure to be a thrilling fight regardless to who wins or how quick it is.  Heavyweights rarely let us down when they have the destructive power that Cain and Junior have.  I am pulling for Velasquez simply because I want to see a rubber match in the future.  I think if they fought 10 times they would win 5 a piece.  My official prediction for Saturday night is going to be Cain Velasquez via TKO but I am not confident enough to bet on it.

Should be a great night of fights on Saturday!

Check back here on Sunday to see my post fight analysis.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

New American League Powerhouses: Anaheim and Toronto?

When people think about the best teams in the American League, they think Yankees and Red Sox.  Recently Detroit and Texas have been thrown in the mix as World Series contenders, but the whole landscape of the AL has changed drastically so far this offseason.  Josh Hamilton has left the Rangers to join up with the LA Angels of Anaheim, and Toronto has been making some big trade splashes of their own.  Could the Angels and Jays become the new powerhouses of the AL?

The Angels landed Pujols last year and were expected to be right there with Texas on top of the division.  As it turned out, the Oakland Athletics surprised everyone to take the AL West.  While I like their young pitching, I do not see Oakland stealing the division again.  Meanwhile, the Rangers have just lost arguably their 3 best players in Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli, and Michael Young.  Throw in the fact that their pitching staff is suspect, and you have a team going from AL's best to seeking help.  Then there is the Angels.  Last year they made a big splash adding Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson.  This year they added Josh Hamilton.  Throw in the fact that you have rookie of the year and MVP runner up Mike Trout and another promising youngster in Mark Trumbo and you have a recipe for success.

Despite my disdain for Hamilton, Pujols, and Wilson, I cannot find any holes in their lineup.  They quietly addressed their pitching by adding Tommy Hanson, although they will probably look to add another quality starter before the trade deadline hits down the road.  Behind their big bats and perennial Cy Young candidate Jered Weaver, I see the Angels winning the AL West and really being a dominate team for years to come.  It seems the only thing stopping this from happening is injury problems, which Hamilton and the aging Pujols are susceptible to.

Meanwhile in the AL East, the Yankees and Red Sox are maybe on the outside looking in for the first time in a long time.  The yankees are still good, there is no questioning that.  But A-Rod and Jeter are already hurt and the season has not even started yet!  Kevin Youkilis will do a good job holding down the fort at 3rd base, and the Yanks will definitely be in contention for a playoff spot when the year is coming to a close.  However, the road will not be easy for the Yankees.  The Orioles were on their tail until the last day of the season last year, and very well could have won the playoff series between the two teams.  The Rays are always developing stars only to have them go elsewhere.  Evan Longoria broke this trend by signing one of the most generous contracts a star player will sign.  This is why I love Evan and hope he wins many games in his tenure in Tampa.  BJ Upton kept the trend going though, as he walked away from the team.  No problem though, Tampa added Wil Myers in a trade with the Royals.  He is a top prospect and early favorite for American League rookie of the year.  If any team knows how to develop and use young talent, it is Tampa, so look for them to be right at the top as well.  Boston spent some money on Napoli and Victorino, and while they are still a good team, there is clear locker room problems and their pitching staff is still brutal.  Boston is not bad, but I see them finishing last in the AL East as the teams stand now.

That only leaves the Toronto Blue Jays.  Since winning back to back World Series in the early 90's, this team has yet to make the playoffs.  Apparently ownership is not having this anymore, making 2 HUGE trade splashes this offseason.  The first was when they were the benefactors of the Miami Marlins cleaning house.  They gave up very little in a trade that sent Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio, and Mark Buehrle to Canada.  They did not stop there, trading with the New York Mets for NL Cy Young winner RA Dickey.  They also took a risk on Melky Cabrera who was on a tear last year before being busted for steroids.  They are hoping to see the high level of production he had in San Francisco prior to his suspension.

When these trades are added to an already solid lineup of Brett Lawrie, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion you again have a recipe for success.  The 3 pitchers they traded for will be on top of a rotation featuring Ricky Romero, who will hope to bounce back from a terrible year, and Brandon Morrow.  Throw in the young close Casey Janssen who had a great year last year and their pitching looks solid too.

Here is a quick look at their potential opening day lineup as it stands now:
  1. SS-Jose Reyes
  2. OF-Melky Cabrera
  3. OF-Jose Bautista
  4. DH-Edwin Encarnacion
  5. 3B-Brett Lawrie
  6. 1B-Adam Lind
  7. OF-Colby Rasmus
  8. C-JP Arencibia
  9. 2B-Emilio Bonifacio

Meanwhile their pitching staff is just as strong:
  • SP-Josh Johnson
  • SP-RA Dickey
  • SP-Brandon Morrow
  • SP-Mark Buehrle
  • SP-Ricky Romero
  • CL-Casey Janssen
  • RP-JA Happ
  • RP-Darren Oliver
  • RP-Brandon Lincoln
  • RP-Sergio Santos
The only reason I am not sold on this team is because of the ridiculously stacked division that is the AL East, but if they make playoffs they are as dangerous a team as anyone in baseball.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

What is Next for the UFC on Fox 5 Fighters?

After a busy weekend of fights, all of the fighters from the UFC on Fox 5 fight card now switch into fight finding mode.  The champion stayed champ and two youngsters rolled over two of mma's legendary fighters. The landscape of a division can change after any given fight card.  So what should be expected next from the fighters who left it all in the octagon Saturday night?

Matt Brown/Mike Swick:
Both of these guys are far away from title contention, however they are some of the UFC's most exciting fighters who bring it every time they step into the octagon.  It really does not matter who they fight next, it will be an exciting match with fireworks.

Rory MacDonald/BJ Penn:
Rory is one of the top 10, debatable top 5, welterweights in the UFC.  There are two things Rory made VERY clear about his future plans:
  1. He will not fight GSP
  2. He wants revenge
He has said hundreds of time he likes training in Montreal and does not want to ruin that by challenging GSP.  They will remain friends and partners and will NOT fight yet, to most fans dismay.  He did however call out Carlos Condit after his win on Saturday.  His only loss came to Condit via a very sketchy referee stoppage with 7 seconds left in the fight.  He dominated the first two rounds before Condit turned the tides in the 3rd.  While I believe the stoppage was unwarranted and the fight should have been a draw due to Condit scoring a 10-8 in the 3rd round, it will go in the record books as a loss.  He wants to get his revenge in a rematch, and Condit is looking to bounce back from his UFC 154 loss to GSP and get a win.  This fight is intriguing to the fans and just makes sense.  Make it happen UFC!

Meanwhile, BJ Penn is in a sticky situation.  Should he retire? Drop to lightweight? Maybe even try featherweight? One thing is for sure, the future hall of famer is outmatched at 170.  He is too small.  At lightweight nobody could take him down, and he can be a much better boxer against people whose arms are not twice as long as his.  Either get serious about training and drop a weight class or two, or call it quits BJ.  It is painful to watch such a legend of the sport get clowned by welterweights like Nick Diaz and Rory MacDonald.

Alexander Gustafsson/Shogun Rua:
Alexander Gustafsson dominated the legendary Shogun and secured a title shot.  However, in the post fight interview he said he did not enjoy waiting long between fights.  He thought it hurt him when he fought Thiago Silva and did not want to do so again.  That means while he waits for Jones to heal up and fight Sonnen he wants another match.  Phil Davis just lost his UFC 155 opponent Forrest Griffin to a MCL tear.  This is the perfect opportunity for Gustafsson to fight a top 10 guy, stay busy while waiting for Jones, and redeem his only career loss.  Like Rory versus Condit, this is a fight that makes sense.  They have both gotten better since they met and it is a chance for Gustafsson to prove he deserves his title shot.  Make this fight happen too!

As for Shogun, he is a legend that only has a 5-5 record inside the octagon.  He is on the outside looking in as far as his standing in the light heavyweight division is concerned.  Most of the other top 205lb fighters have fights scheduled, so he might have to wait a while to find the right opponent.  He still brings it when he fights and should not retire just yet.  Hopefully we will see him again soon to put on a great show for the fans.

Benson Henderson/Nate Diaz:
Henderson dominated Diaz just as I thought he would.  He has become increasingly scarier with each victory, however he still has not finished any of his UFC opponents.  He has two potential matchups that I find very intriguing.  He could wait for the end of Strikeforce, and take on the champion Gilbert Melendez.  El Nino has mowed down all of his opponents and is even in the pound for pound discussion despite fighting in Strikeforce rather than the UFC.  If he comes over, not many would object to him getting an immediate title shot.  This is a fight many fans would pay to see, myself included.  His other option is to take on the winner of the UFC on Fox 6 winner in Chicago.  Anthony Pettis is fighting Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone in the co-main event and that is a fight with significant title implications.  Pettis is the last person to best Henderson in the last ever WEC fight.  Henderson could prove that "shotime kick" was a fluke and that he is truly the best fighter at 155 if this matchup happens.  However if the Cowboy defeats Pettis, then we have a third fight between those fighters.  Cerrone and Henderson had a 5 round war the first time they met up in the WEC for the interim lightweight title, in which Henderson squeaked away a decision as he loves to do.  They met again and Henderson caught Cerrone in a guillotine choke that ended the fight in the first round. (This was the last fight Henderson won that was not a decision.)  This 3rd fight between Henderson and Cerrone would be an interesting one, since they both have improved drastically since their WEC days.  Any of these three fights would be possibilities for Benson Henderson's next title defense.

As for Nate Diaz, he should continue to get matchups favorable to him since Dana White seems to love the Diaz brothers.  Anyone susceptible to submissions will probably be Nate's next opponent.  He will win and Dana will put him right back in the mix for a title shot.  I personally would love to see Nate try welterweight again, and get demolished by fighters bigger than him.  He has a bunch of possibilities for his next fight so this is too hard to pick a fight or two for him.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

UFC on Fox 5 Thoughts

UFC on Fox 5 was such a stacked card it is amazing they put it on free tv.  Even though three of the four fights on the main card ended in decisions does not mean the card did not deliver.

Swick versus Brown was fight that did not get much hype due to the magnitude of the other three fights on the card but this was an incredible matchup.  It started with brown dominating the fight on the ground and getting Swick on the defense.  He had both a d'arce choke and a wicked triangle that Swick was able to defend long enough to see a second round.  The second round did not go any better for Swick.  Brown clipped him with a left knocked him back, and as he was falling to the matt connected with a hard right that ended the fight.  This was one of three spectacular knockouts in Seattle.

Next up was Rory MacDonald versus BJ Penn.  In the second round of the fight Rory really took control and landed kicks and punches to the body that had Penn covering up.  It seemed like Rory could have finished the fight but felt the need to clown BJ for another round instead.  BJ was flat out dominated by the promising prospect who will most likely be a champion eventually.  Rory then went on to win a unanimous decision and call out Carlos Condit.  His only career loss was to Condit via a sketchy referee stoppage with 8 seconds left in a fight where Rory dominated the first two rounds.  Hopefully Dana White makes this rematch happen.

Keeping up with the trend of new school over old school, Alexander Gustafsson dominated Shogun Rua in all aspects of their bout.  They swung it out and had wild exchanges, even from the clinch.  Gustafsson held his own in the striking and really took the fight with some sneaky takedowns.  He dominated a legend for 3 rounds and will happily face the winner of Jones versus Sonnen.  His amazing height and reach advantage is something Jon Jones also enjoys, so a potential matchup between the two could mean fireworks.

As for the lightweight championship, it was pretty much what I expected.  Diaz could do little to stop the exceptional striking and wrestling of Benson Henderson.  He even dominated Diaz in the standup.  Diaz usually is pushing the pace and using his dominant boxing to force the fight.  Henderson had none of that, disrespecting the boxing of Diaz while picking him apart with kicks and punches.  Outside of a few leg lock attempts, Henderson was in little danger of being stopped.  Benson dominated him for 5 rounds and maintained his title.  He better get right back to the gym thought, because Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone are battling in Chicago for a potential shot at the belt next!

Prelims:
The prelims on FX and the Facebook fight did not let us down either:

  • The night in Seattle started with a 1 round submission battle that earned Scott Jorgensen and John Albert fight of the night bonuses.  On top of this a last second (literally) rear-naked choke landed Scotty a HUGE payday with submission of the night honors as well.
  • Next up to bat on FX was Dennis Siver making his 2nd fight at featherweight and he absolutely dominated Nam Pham.  One judge even scored all three rounds 10-8 his kickboxing was so dominant.
  • Abel Trujillo made his UFC debut against a softer opponent than he originally drew, but looked amazing nonetheless.  After Means and Chiesa were forced out of their bouts, Trujillo and LeVesseur ended up fighting each other.  Trujillo held his own against the cage before eventually dominating LeVesseur and finishing him with brutal knees to the body.
  • Detroiter Daron Cruickshank put on a kickboxing show against Henry Martinez.  If not for his ridiculous chin, Daron would have walked away with a 1st round KO, but I am sure he is just as happy with a 2nd round KO via headkick.  Even though I think Daron was robbed of a $65,000 knockout of the night bonus, he still took home a big win and 20% of Henry's purse due to his missing of the 156lb limit.
  • After being super pumped about Daron's huge knockout win, I was almost put to sleep by Joe Proctor versus Ramsey Nijem.  All I will say is Nijem won a boring decision to a less than stellar opponent, congrats.
  • Raphael Assuncao followed up Nijem with a decision win of his own, outstriking the favorite Mike Easton and snapping his 8 fight win streak.  Assuncao moves to 3-0 since dropping to bantamweight and looks to keep that rolling as he eyes a return to title contention.
  • The final bout of the prelims saw Yves Edwards taking a knockout of the night (which I still think belongs to Cruickshank).  Stephens has always boasted an incredible chin, but he came out wreckless and got caught by the "thugjitsu master."

My predictions started off red hot 4/4 but unfortunately I finished the night with a mediocre 6/11 record.

Friday, December 7, 2012

Women's MMA and Title Shots

Thursday, December 6th started out as a great day for the growth of mixed martial arts.  However, some suspect decisions by Dana White and UFC matchmakers leaves us fans scratching our heads.  The ability to earn a title shot in the UFC involves too many subjective opinions.  Unlike hockey, baseball, or football, there is no clear cut playoff format for the fighters to go through and this often results in controversy.  Two statements Dana White made today have way too much personal opinion and bias behind them.

Today started as one of the most exciting days for UFC fans, women, and the gay community.  Now that may seem like a strange combo, but those 3 groups that received great news this afternoon.  Ronda Rousey finally has a date to make her UFC debut and be the first woman to fight in UFC history.  She is making this historic debut against the first openly gay UFC fighter, Liz Carmouche.  The UFC seemed to be on top of the world when they announced that the first female bout in their history, but Dana seemed to have dropped the ball in the light heavyweight and welterweight divisions today.

Lets start with the welterweights:
After making his historic comeback and defeating Carlos Condit at UFC 154 in November, GSP was waiting to hear who his next opponent would be.  GSP seemed to have no interest with a superfight with Anderson Silva, so it seemed like the power punching wrestler Johny "Big Rig" Hendricks would be his next match.  Dana however, threw us all a curveball as he likes to do from time to time.  He announced that it will be Nick Diaz facing GSP next.  Dana obviously has a love affair with the Diaz brothers, as I believe Nate's 3 wins weren't enough to merit a fight with Ben Henderson for the title either.  But Nick is coming off a suspension for illegal substances and a loss to Carlos Condit (who just lost to GSP!).  If he could not beat Condit, how could he beat Georges?  I do not see Diaz bringing anything at all to the table that GSP cannot handle with little to no trouble.  Meanwhile Johny Hendricks has just outwrestled Koscheck and knocked out Fitch and Kampmann with his 1 punch power.  He was a perfect 56-0 wrestler at Oklahoma State, and he uses his superior wrestling to keep fights standing in the UFC.  GSP is known for the best takedowns in the business so this dominant wrestler could give GSP problems he has never seen before.  The only other dominant wrestler GSP faced was Josh Koscheck and the striking of the champ was way too much for Koshcheck to handle.  This will NOT be the case if Hendricks is in the octagon with the champ!  If GSP plans on doing his usual thing and fighting the entire 25 minutes to earn a decision, think again.  If you spend 5 rounds in the octagon with "Big Rig," that left hook is going to find you eventually.  This is an incredibly exciting matchup in the making and the UFC really dropped the ball by dismissing him and going with Diaz.  While I feel this fight will happen eventually, I am very upset that I have to wait longer to see it.

On to the 205lb division:
My complaint with this division does not lie in the matchup between Chael Sonnen and Jon Jones but rather who gets the crack at the winner.  I agree with Dana White that nobody stepped up and that is why Chael is getting the title shot.  However, I cannot agree that the winner of Shogun Rua versus Alexander Gustafsson should get the next title shot.  Dan Henderson earned his title shot by defeating Rua in one of the best fights of recent memory, and Lyoto Machida earned his title shot by knocking out Ryan Bader in spectacular fashion.  Henderson's knee injury at UFC 151 threw this division into a crazy disaster and complicated earning a title shot for everybody.  Although the division is slightly crazy right now, it seemed like everyone thought the fight between Henderson and Machida at UFC 157 would determine who gets to fight the winner of Jones versus Sonnen.  We all thought wrong.  Whoever wins this Saturday night will get the next title shot which has to leave Henderson, Machida, and fans across the world scratching their heads.  I am big fans of Rua and Gustafsson and I think they both are capable of dethroning the champ, but I would have liked to see them do a little more to earn their shot at the title. (like face the winner of Rashad Evans versus Little Nog)

On a final note, when people talk about the top pound for pound fighters on the planet they are talking about Anderson Silva, GSP, Jon "Bones" Jones, and Jose Aldo. Right now Anderson Silva is refusing a match with Chris Wiedman while GSP, Jones, and Aldo are all lined up to fight fighters coming off of a loss!  If they are truly the pound for pound best, put them against the best.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Which Weight Class is the Strongest?

Mixed martial arts has become an increasingly popular sport around the world as the UFC soars to greater heights.  There are world class fighters from around the world at various weight classes, but which weight class is the most stacked?  Which ones are only top heavy?  Which ones are the deepest?  This post will give my take on these questions and more.

First things first, what is it that makes a certain weight class stronger than another?  I believe that there is a number of things that make up a strong division.  First, there must be a high number of top fighters in a division.  Deep divisions mean that there will be exciting fights in that weight class on every card put together, even with injuries factored in.  Second, I believe a strong champion results in a strong division.  However, a division is not strong unless there are multiple people that can hang with the champion.  Without a couple of top contenders knocking on the door of the champ, then even a dominant champion could really just be the result of a weak division.  There are other factors but these are the main 3 criteria I will be using to rate the 8 weight classes of the UFC.

Lets start with the lower weights and work our way up:

  • Flyweight: This is a division that is not known to be incredibly deep due to the fact that it is new, and some of the top 125lb fighters are coming from other organizations.  Over time this division could become deeper, but as for now it is a 4 man division.  McCall, Dodson, Benavidez, and Johnson are on the top and will probably end up fighting each other multiple times over the next couple years.
  • Bantamweight: The 135lb division is not as deep as other divisions, but it is very top heavy.  Dominick Cruz is a monster at the top although he is still hindered by his knee problems right now.  Renan Barao is the interim champ on a 29 fight winning streak that seems as invincible as Cruz.  Then contenders such as Faber, McDonald, Pickett, and Easton are lurking for their chance to rise to the top.  Even with the loss of Johnson and Benavidez to the flyweight division, there are a bunch of great fights coming up at 135 in the near future.
  • Featherweight: Jose Aldo.  He is an unreal champion who is at minimum top 4 pound for pound fighter on the planet.  He has received some criticism for his lackluster performances against Florian and Hominick, but there is no denying he is a monster.  This division was weak but will happily welcome former lightweight champ Frankie Edgar and perennial contender Clay Guida.  This division has a dominant champion and about 5 other strong fighters, but nobody seems to be on the verge of dethroning Aldo anytime soon.
  • Lightweight:  Debatably the deepest division in the UFC, the lightweight division boasts a long list of great fighters.  With Benson Henderson at the top, the division also includes many former WEC champs such as Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, Jamie Varner, and Gilbert Melendez (the current Strikeforce champion). With Strikeforce folding and free agent Eddie Alvarez possibly joining the UFC, the division is only going to get stronger despite Edgar and Guida dropping a weight class.  The only criticism I can say about this division is that there has been no truly dominant champion like GSP or Silva since debatably BJ Penn.
  • Welterweight:  With Georges St.Pierre returning and some youngsters climbing up the ranks, this is a deep division full of killers.  Along with great champion GSP, there are some veterans like Jon Fitch, Bj Penn, Carlos Condit, Martin Kampmann and Josh Koscheck keeping their names in the mix.  Also, there are some up and coming names such as Rory MacDonald, Erick Silva, Jake Ellenberger and top contender Johny Hendricks.  Moreover, there are some middleweights that dropped in weight for various reasons like Demian Maia, Nate Marquadt, and Nick Diaz.  When you put all these names together, you have a deep division of fighters that all are very capable of being champions.  Yet, GSP reigns supreme using his incredible wrestling and striking to grind these world class fighters down and win a decision.  This is definitely an elite weight class with a top 4 pound for pound champion sitting on top.
  • Middleweight:  The spider has run this division since showing Rich Franklin a thing or two about Muay Thai knees.  He is so destructive and devastating it seems as though people are running away from this division because they know he is invincible.  Chael Sonnen, Demian Maia, Nate Marquadt, Vitor Belfort, Dan Henderson, and others have fled away from 185lbs for other weight classes.  It can be argued someone like Rashad Evans would thrive at 185, but chooses to stay at 205 in fear of fighting the spider.  However, this division is still not short in talent.  Michael Bisping, Chris Wiedman, Alan Belcher, Tim Boetsh, Cung Le and others are seeking a shot to fight Anderson Silva.  He definitely has plenty of work to do at 185, but the spider is seeking out a superfight with GSP or Jon Jones instead as he sees the end of his career approaching.  185 is a division with a dominant champ, and some solid contenders, but nobody expects a change in the guard anytime soon.
  • Light Heavyweight: Jon Bones Jones is quickly becoming a polarizing figure in the UFC.  Like his next opponent Chael Sonnen, you either love or hate this guy.  He is right in the pound for pound mix with Anderson Silva and is only getting better with age.  To accompany this dominant champ is a whole mesh of MMA legends.  Mauricio Shogun Rua and Dan Henderson are warriors that have put on great shows in the UFC and Pride.  They are right at the top along with their next opponents: Alexander Gustafsson and Lyoto Machida.  Add top wrestlers Rashad Evans and Phil Davis in the mix and you have a stacked division.
  • Heavyweight:  UFC 155 will make a HUGE impact on the future of the heavyweight division.  Junior DosSantos and Cain Velasquez are the 2 juggernauts on top of the division.  There are some other fighters that pose interesting threats to the title in Daniel Cormier, Fabricio Werdum, and even Alistair Overeem.  All in all, anything can happen on any given night when the power of a UFC heavyweight is in the octagon.  This is a power packed division that will only get stronger with its young fighters developing and the movement of some of Strikeforce's finest to the UFC.
Based on my above assessment, here is my order for the strongest division in the UFC:
  1. Welterweight
  2. Middleweight
  3. Light Heavyweight
  4. Bantamweight
  5. Heavyweight
  6. Lightweight
  7. Flyweight
  8. Featherweight

Monday, December 3, 2012

UFC on Fox 5 Official Picks

Coming up on December 8th, Benson Henderson will try to defend his title for a second time.  2012 has been a confusing and debatably disappointing year for the UFC's lightweight division.  Frankie Edgar lost his title to Benson Henderson in Japan, but Dana White and UFC matchmakers felt that Frankie "the answer" Edgar deserved a rematch.  This decision to give him a rematch never made sense to me.  The 155 lb division is one of the deepest in the sport, so to give Frankie an immediate rematch was a recipe for disaster.  In the rematch, Henderson won a very controversial decision (one which i thought should have been scored 48-47 Edgar).  There was no way they could have them fight 3 times in a row, so Edgar decided to take a chance at featherweight.  That leaves Nate Diaz.  Diaz has bounced up and down between the lightweight and welterweight division, and never really found his stride until now.  Since losses to Dong Hyun Kim and Rory MacDonald, Nate has won 3 straight at lightweight against Gomi, Cerrone, and Miller.  This is a very intriguing matchup that could be a fight of the night possibility, even on such a stacked card.

Also on the card is a battle of top light heavyweights Shogun Rua and Alexander Gustafsson.  Gustafsson is a young up and coming fighter whose only loss came to a brilliant anaconda choke by Phil Davis.  Rua is a veteran that has been through wars, and looks to get a rematch with Jon Jones.

Welterweights BJ Penn and Rory MacDonald will also be squaring off on Fox this Saturday night.  These two fighters do not like one another and have been waiting for this match for a while.  Is the unstoppable force of Rory MacDonald going to keep rolling his way into title contention, or is a "motivated" BJ Penn back and ready to make a statement?

In addition to the Fox main card, the FX under card has a few intriguing matchups.  Ultimate Fighter Live Winner Michael Chiesa was supposed to fight for the first time since submitting Al Iaquinta on the season finale.  However, TUF Live fighters Joe Proctor and Daron Cruickshank will look to fight their first fights since the finale.

Let me first start by blazzing through my preliminary bout predictions:

  • Tim Means defeats Abel Trujillo via TKO (cancelled)
  • Scott Jorgensen defeats John Albert via Submission (Guillotine)
  • Daron Cruickshank defeats Henry Martinez vio TKO
  • Jeremy Stephens defeats Yves Edwards via decision if he can stay out of jail.
  • Joe Proctor defeats Ramsey Nijem via decision
  • Dennis Siver defeats Nam Phan via decision
  • Mike Easton defeats Raphael Assuncao via decision and gets more respect in the bantamweight division
  • Michael Chiesa defeats Marcus LeVesseur via Submission (RNC) (cancelled)
  • Abel Trujillo defeats Marcus LeVesseur via decision in the battle of the lost opponents
Main Event:

  • Mike Swick made an incredible comeback to the UFC on the Fox 4 card against Demarcus Johnson and he will be looking to pick up where he left off against Matt Brown.  I see him finding his range early and delivering another spectacular knockout on Saturday night. SWICK VIA KO!
  • BJ Penn for the 50th time claims that he is taking his training seriously and that he is "the best BJ Penn."  He feels that he is being disrespected and that he wants to be in the talk of greatest fighters in the UFC. Unfortunately, he seems to be past his prime and is really up against a stud.  Rory MacDonald's only loss was on a crappy stoppage to Carlos Condit, in a fight where he dominated the first 2 rounds.  He is a machine and potentially the future of the 170 lb division and I see him dominating BJ start to finish and finishing him off with a TKO beating that sends BJ into retirement (for real this time). MACDONALD VIA TKO!
  • As for Gustafsson versus Rua, I keep flip flopping on what the heck is going to happen.  I like both fighters and I believe they are both forces in the 205 lb division.  For now I am going to take Rua via a TKO but who knows who I think will win or want to win come Saturday.  The only thing I know for sure is this fight will be kept standing up and should be incredibly exciting.  RUA VIA TKO!
  • Lastly comes the main event: Nate Diaz challenging Benson Henderson.  Unlike the co-main event, I am torn because I do not know which fighter I dislike more.  Henderson is the Tim Tebow of MMA, always pushing God onto the fans in an annoying fashion.  Then there is the bad boy from Stockton California.  Regardless of my opinion of the two fighters personalities, I find this to be a great matchup.  Diaz is a guy with solid boxing, going up against someone with deadly leg kicks.  Diaz also is a possessor of quick submissions going up against someone who is known for leaving limbs up for grabs.  However, just because Diaz gets Henderson in a submission does not mean he will finish the fight.  I see this being similar to the first fight between Donald Cerrone and Benson Henderson, a fight of the night where Henderson survives submissions and uses wrestling and ground striking to win a decision.  He will then quote the bible verse tatted on Jon Jones' chest and walk away lightweight champion again.  HENDERSON VIA (controversial) DECISION!